IPv4 exhaustion: More data and views
The BBC story that so annoyed me (without a shred of evidence, it predicted the exhaustion of IPv4 addresses by the end of 2005, among other sins) has provoked a couple of other interesting corrective responses:
- The indomitable Scott Bradner devoted one of his Network World Fusion columns (“Miscounting and misunderstanding addresses“) to it. Highlight: “I think something like IPv6 – and I expect it will be IPv6 itself – will be needed over the next decade as the Internet expands to cover many more applications such as IP-based cell phones. But there is no reason to panic. IPv6 is well along in deployment and will be there when we need it.”
- The RIPE NCC (the IP address registry for Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East) posted an updated on “IPv4 Address Space“. Highlight: “Based on today’s total global allocation rate of approximately 4.25 blocks per year in 2002, or 5.5 blocks in 2001, and the remaining pool of 91 blocks held by IANA, it is unrealistic to assume that there is an imminent shortage in the IPv4 address space.”
- Geoff Huston pointed me to an updated presentation from September (“IPv4 Address Lifetime Expectancy Revisited“) that expands upon his earlier (excellent) paper “IPv4 – How Long Have We Got?” Huston’s latest work suggests that, if anything, 2024 may be a conservative estimate of IPv4 longevity.
‘Nuff said, for now.