This post is by my partners B. Robbins Kiessling, Sarkis Jebejian and Erik R. Tavzel.
As the financial crisis has deepened over the past year, first the Bush Administration and now the Obama Administration have announced ambitious plans for comprehensive reform of the financial regulatory system. Not to be left behind, at the same time current and former members of Congress and Government officials, international groups such the G-20 and even the mainstream press are weighing in on the need for reform and the shape it should take. Although the immensely complex process of actual reform has barely begun, the key players have said enough to allow a good guess as to their goals for the post-regulatory reform financial world. There will be an intense focus on regulating and reigning in “systemically important” financial institutions. Institutions will face tighter regulation of risky activities and stricter capital and funding requirements. The regulatory net will be cast much wider, capturing institutions and activities previously not subject to substantial regulatory oversight (most notably, purveyors of derivatives and credit default swaps such as AIG’s Financial Products division as well as certain private investment funds). What will these changes mean for today’s financial institutions? How will reform change the shape of the industry in the coming years?
Turning to the history books may, in fact, provide useful insights. One popular point of view is that the post-reform financial industry should look more like it did in the 50 years from the mid-1930’s to the mid-1980’s before the consolidation and deregulation of the past two decades. Whereas in the mid-1980’s the only financial institutions that even theoretically could pose systemic risk were a handful of highly-regulated money center banks whose business was largely limited to taking deposits and making loans to large corporations and foreign governments, over the past 12 months we have learned that a much broader array of institutions with extensive unregulated or lightly regulated businesses can be “too big to fail.” However, while looking back at history is informative and certain of the deregulatory changes of the last two decades may in hindsight seem like mistakes, simply turning back the clock is impossible and undesirable. The reform effort will face many difficult questions in figuring out how to restructure the system based on today’s financial market and macroeconomic realities. This bulletin looks ahead to some expected features of regulatory reform and associated questions and challenges.
Size of Institutions
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and others have stated that one of the goals of regulatory reform should be to avoid institutions that are “too big to fail.” The trend in the financial services industry in the past few decades, however, has been precisely the opposite. Since the early 1980’s, we have witnessed massive consolidation, fueled by the lifting of the prohibition on interstate banking, the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, the S&L and regional bank crises, globalization and technological advances. Today, the combined assets of the four largest U.S. commercial banks – JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo – represent 64% of the total assets of all U.S. commercial banks. Many firms that were once prominent, well-known names have been absorbed by other institutions, even before the financial crisis led to further consolidation. On the banking side, for example, today’s JPMorgan Chase includes among its predecessors Chemical Bank, Manufacturers Hanover, Chase Manhattan, J.P. Morgan & Co., First Chicago, Texas Commerce and Bank One (itself the product of numerous mergers). The current Bank of America’s predecessors include NationsBank, NCNB, First National Bank of Boston, Security Pacific, Continental Illinois, LaSalle Bank, Fleet, Norstar, Maryland National Bank and the old Bank of America. On the investment banking side, Citigroup acquired Salomon Brothers and Smith Barney. Credit Suisse acquired First Boston and DLJ. Morgan Stanley merged with Dean Witter.
Despite the concern over systemic risk, this trend toward consolidation has been accelerated by the financial crisis, as weaker firms have been absorbed (either voluntarily or involuntarily) by better-capitalized rivals. For example, Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan acquired Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual, and Wells Fargo acquired Wachovia.
Against this background, the objective of limiting the size of institutions raises important questions and faces significant challenges. As a threshold mater, what will be the framework for achieving this goal? Will there be new rules simply limiting size based on certain clearly identifiable metrics (such as assets or deposits)? Will there be objective criteria at all or a “you know it when you see it” approach? How will financial institutions and their regulators deal with the fact that systemic importance is at least in part a function of the identity and importance of your counterparties? Will institutions be subject to an after-the-fact determination that could have a significant impact on their activities? And what will be the consequences of being systemically important? Will it be more stringent capital requirements, as suggested by Secretary Geithner, or limitations on certain risky activities, as suggested by Paul Volcker and others, or will divestitures be required? And, if divestitures are required, how will the downsizing of firms that are currently “too big to fail” be accomplished? Will some of the crisis-related combinations encouraged by the government in the past year have to be undone? Putting aside systemic importance, are we entering an era where scale will be discouraged? How can institutions simultaneously be big enough to compete globally but not be too big to fail? The answers to these questions not only will impact the new rules, but will influence every aspect of the business and strategy of large financial institutions—including decisions on lines of business, M&A activity, capital structure, risk management and personnel.
…continue reading: (Re)regulation of Financial Services—Back to the Future?