Formulation of optimal regulation of asset-backed securities (ABS) markets has been hindered by the inability to identify specific market failures as well as the absence of well-defined social welfare objectives. In our paper, Skin in the Game and Moral Hazard, which was recently presented at Harvard University, we develop a tractable framework for analyzing social welfare in both regulated and unregulated ABS markets, accounting for moral hazard at the origination stage, private information at the distribution stage, and asymmetric information across ABS investors. We show originators operating in unregulated markets fail to internalize the costs they impose on investors if they utilize a common ABS structure (e.g. zero retentions) rather than credibly signaling positive information to the market via higher retentions. Further, originator effort incentives are reduced since those developing high value assets must either signal via high retentions or otherwise face underpricing of their securities. Mandated retentions have the potential to raise welfare by increasing originator effort incentives in an efficient way, accounting for investor-level spillovers.

The first important policy implication to emerge from the model is that regulators must choose between a “one-size scheme” under which all originators are forced to hold the same retention size (e.g. 5%) or a “menu scheme” under which originators must choose amongst multiple retention sizes (e.g. 4% or 8%). Both schemes can restore effort incentives. However, the menu scheme carries the added social benefit of allowing originators to signal positive information to investors via the choice of a larger retention. Signaling promotes efficient sharing of risks by mitigating the adverse selection problem confronting uninformed ABS investors. The weakness of the menu scheme is that it generally results in higher average retentions, resulting in lower originator fundraising.

…continue reading: Skin in the Game and Moral Hazard

In our paper, Dynamic CEO Compensation, which is forthcoming in the Journal of Finance, we present a fully dynamic model of CEO pay that incorporates many complex features of real-life contracting settings. In particular, it considers multiple periods, risk aversion, private saving, and short-termism. In such settings, the optimal contract is typically very complicated and can only be solved numerically, which makes it difficult to see the intuition and understand which features of the setting are driving which aspects of the contract. Our main methodological contribution is to achieve a surprisingly tractable optimal contract. The model’s closed-form solutions lead to transparency, clarity, and simplicity — they allow the economic forces behind the contract to be transparent, its economic implications to be clear, and in particular practical guidelines on how to reform compensation to address issues that manifested in the recent financial crisis. In particular, we propose a compensation structure based on a system that escrows compensation for a set period of years stretching into the executive’s retirement. The longer time frame is designed to prevent the executive from taking short-term actions that may enrich the manager at the expense of the firm’s future profits. The plan also provides a rebalancing mechanism to maintain a constant percentage of compensation in cash and stock, so that the executive always has sufficient equity in the firm to provide performance incentives — even if the stock price falls.

…continue reading: Dynamic CEO Compensation

In the paper, Campaign Contributions and Governmental Financial Management: Evidence from State Bond Pricing, which was recently made publicly available on SSRN, I study campaign-finance agency costs related to pricing in the $2.9 trillion state and local government bond market. By selecting a contributing underwriter directly, the government could incur significant costs with respect to government bond underpricing. There is no comparable impact when an underwriter is chosen through an auction. Through the use of a control function approach, I show that the decision to select a contributing underwriter is endogenous to first-day returns. When underpricing is expected, the government’s propensity to choose a contributing underwriter decreases as expected underpricing increases. This evidence supports the idea that there are significant agency costs associated with campaign contributions and the evidence remains robust after a battery of checks.

This paper’s results lend support to the political agency cost model. Consistent with the common assertion that the election is the primary disciplining mechanism for political executives in a political agency cost model (Besley, 2006), the likelihood that a contributing underwriter is chosen is decreasing in the closeness to the next election. Consistent with the idea that laws can discipline politicians directly and through taxpayer monitoring, the likelihood that the government does not choose an auction to select an underwriter is decreasing in the quality of conflict-of-interest laws and freedom-of-information laws; the likelihood that the government chooses a contributing underwriter is decreasing in the quality of freedom-of-information laws.

…continue reading: Campaign Contributions and Governmental Financial Management

In the paper, Board Structure and Monitoring: New Evidence from CEO Turnover, which was recently made publicly available on SSRN, we provide new evidence on the potential benefits of SOX and ensuing new exchange listing rules and the effectiveness of monitoring by independent directors. Although many researchers, regulators and investors believe that increasing the representation of independent directors on corporate boards can improve quality of board oversight, empirical evidence has been mixed and inconclusive. Recent research even raises doubt about the effectiveness of independent directors in monitoring CEOs.

Using the change in NYSE and Nasdaq listing rules following the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act as a source of exogenous variation, we provide the first statistically convincing evidence on a causal relation between board (committee) independence and the sensitivity of forced CEO turnover to firm performance. Specifically, we find that firms that after SOX moved to a majority of independent directors or to a fully independent nominating committee experience increased sensitivity of forced CEO turnover to performance. This evidence suggests that quality of board monitoring is positively related to board independence and nominating committee independence and the causation goes from board structure to quality of board monitoring.

…continue reading: Board Structure and Monitoring

In the paper, The Role of Institutional Investors in Voting: Evidence from the Securities Lending Market, which was recently made publicly available on SSRN, we use a unique setting to examine if institutional investors influence firm-level corporate governance through proxy voting. Understanding institutional investor preferences regarding corporate governance is important for firms trying to attract new investors as well as policy makers considering the regulation of different governance mechanisms. The activities of institutional investors in the securities lending market provide one of the few opportunities to directly examine the behavior of institutional investors in influencing firm-level governance.

To study the securities lending market for U.S. firms during the period 2007-2009, we use a proprietary data set comprising shares available to lend (supply), shares borrowed (demand), and loan fees. The data covers more than 85% of the securities lending activity for these firms and allows for a comprehensive analysis during a period of tremendous growth in that market. In the past, understanding the securities lending market has been limited partly due to the lack of transparency in this fragmented market. We find that on average, 22.48% of a firm’s market capitalization is available for lending, 3.44% is actually borrowed, and the annualized loan fee is 35 basis points. The supply of lendable shares shows great variation, with minimum and maximum values of 0.01% and 74.38% of market capitalization. We find that more lending supply is available for firms with larger institutional ownership and strong corporate governance. There is considerable interest in some stocks and almost 100% of the available supply of such stocks is actually borrowed and on loan. The annual fee can be quite high, with the maximum at 745 bps. During 2007-2009, 10% of the stocks were very expensive to borrow and had a fee greater than 100 basis points. 2007 was the peak year for the securities lending market, with activity dropping off after the financial crisis.

…continue reading: The Role of Institutional Investors in Voting

Thank you for permitting me to testify before you today on cost-benefit analysis conducted by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). I am speaking today on behalf of the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation (Committee), of which I am the Executive Director for Research. The Committee has, since its 2006 Interim Report, [1] strongly supported improved cost-benefit analysis by both the SEC and other agencies. Today, the need for improved cost-benefit analysis is particularly evident in the agencies’ respective rulemakings under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank). We are deeply concerned that the inadequate cost-benefit analysis in the vast majority of rulemakings under Dodd-Frank could expose these rules to judicial challenge, prevent important rules from taking effect, and contribute to uncertainty in our markets over their fate.

The broad scope of new regulation under Dodd-Frank, issued by agencies including the SEC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and others, will result in fundamental changes across the financial industry. Sound cost-benefit analysis must be a part of this process, to ensure that in each case, the proposed rule is optimal among all reasonable alternatives. In light of the ruling last July by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in Business Roundtable v. Securities and Exchange Commission, [2] and a current lawsuit seeking to strike down the CFTC’s recently promulgated position limits rule, [3] we believe many of the rules under Dodd-Frank could be subject to successful challenge in court. It would be an unfortunate outcome if, after the Dodd-Frank rulemaking process has run its course for several years, important rules are invalidated because of inadequate analysis. Even if such rules are not eventually invalidated, prolonged uncertainty around their fate threatens to hamper economic activity.

…continue reading: The Need for Improved Cost-Benefit Analysis of Dodd-Frank Rulemaking

In our study, CEO Succession Practices (2012 Edition), which The Conference Board recently released, we document and analyze 2011 cases of CEO turnover at S&P 500 companies. The study is organized in four parts.

Part I: CEO Succession Trends (2000-2011) illustrates year-by-year succession rates and examines specific aspects of the succession phenomenon, including the influence on firm performance on succession and the characteristics of the departing and incoming CEOs.

Part II: CEO Succession Practices (2011) details where boards assign responsibilities on leadership development, the role performed within the board by the retired CEO, and the extent of the disclosure to shareholders on these matters.

Part III: Notable Cases of CEO Succession (2011) includes summaries of 10 episodes of CEO succession that made headlines in the past two years and that were carefully chosen to highlight key circumstances of the process.

Part IV: Shareholder Activism on CEO Succession Planning (2011) reviews examples of companies that have recently faced shareholder pressure in this area.

…continue reading: CEO Succession Practices

There is strong evidence that high levels of short selling are associated with lower future returns and this return predictability suggests that short sellers, on average, have an information advantage over other traders (e.g., Senchack and Starks, 1993; Asquith, Pathak, and Ritter, 2005; Boehmer, Jones, and Zhang, 2008). However, while return predictability suggests that short sellers have an information advantage, it says little about the source of this advantage. In our forthcoming Journal of Financial Economics paper, How Are Shorts Informed? Short Sellers, News, and Information Processing, we ask how short sellers obtain an information advantage.

During the financial crisis in 2008, some regulators and journalists accused short sellers of illegitimate trading practices. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suggested that short sellers spread “false rumors” in an effort to manipulate firms “uniquely vulnerable to panic.” However, in contrast to this manipulation hypothesis, we find that a substantial portion of short sellers’ trading advantage comes from their ability to analyze publicly available information. These findings suggest that, on average, short sellers do not manipulate prices, but rather, they help prices incorporate pertinent information.

…continue reading: Short Sellers, News, and Information Processing

In the paper, Tailspotting: How Disclosure, Stock Prices and Volatility Change When CEOs Fly to Their Vacation Homes, which was recently made publicly available on SSRN, I document a close connection between the timing of corporate news disclosures and CEOs’ personal vacation schedules. I find that companies tend to disclose favorable news just before CEOs leave for vacation and then hold over subsequent news announcements until they return to headquarters. During periods when CEOs are away from the office, stock prices behave quietly with sharply lower volatility than usual. Volatility increases immediately when CEOs return to work. I identify CEO vacation trips by merging publicly available flight histories of corporate jets with on-line real estate records that indicate locations where CEOs own vacation residences, often in upscale oceanfront communities in Florida or New England or close to golf or ski resorts.

For example, on January 7, 2010, aerospace manufacturer Boeing Co. disclosed a 28% increase in annual commercial airliner deliveries and also issued an earnings forecast for the year ahead. Boeing stock rose 4%, capping three days in which it outperformed the market by almost 10%. The company’s shares were quiet for the next several weeks, not moving significantly again until January 27, when Boeing announced strong quarterly earnings and its stock rose more than 7%. In between these announcements, Boeing’s CEO appears to have been on vacation, an inference based upon Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) records of company aircraft trips to and from an airport near his vacation home in Hobe Sound, FL. During this vacation period, the annualized volatility of Boeing’s stock dropped to 0.16, an unusually low level for a major blue chip. During the three days before and three days after his trip, the volatility was more than twice as high at 0.40.

…continue reading: Tailspotting

In the paper, Management Quality, Venture Capital Backing, and Initial Public Offerings, which was recently made publicly available on SSRN, we use hand-collected data on the quality and reputation of the management teams of a large sample of 3,240 entrepreneurial firms going public during 1993-2004 to conduct the first large-sample study of the relationship between VC-backing and management quality and the effect of these two variables on a firm’s IPO characteristics and valuation, post-IPO financial policies, and post-IPO operating performance. We hypothesize that VC-backing positively affects the quality of a firm’s management team, and that both management quality and VC-backing play a certifying role in conveying a firm’s intrinsic value to the financial market, reducing the information asymmetry faced by it.

Our empirical findings are as follows. First, we find that overall VC-backed firms have higher quality management teams compared to non-VC-backed firms. In particular, VC-backed firms have a greater percentage of management team members with MBA degrees, a greater percentage of managers with prior managerial experience, a greater percentage of managers in core functional areas (operations and production, sales and marketing, R&D, and finance), and larger management teams compared to non-VC-backed firms. At the same time, VC-backed firms have lower percentages of management team members who are CPAs and who have prior managerial experience at law and accounting firms; further, their managers have shorter average tenures and smaller heterogeneity in these tenures.

…continue reading: Management Quality, Venture Capital Backing, and Initial Public Offerings