The following post comes to us from Thomas Chemmanur
, Professor of Finance at Boston College, and Xuan Tian
of the Department of Finance at Indiana University.
How should firms communicate with the capital market in advance of corporate events? If firm insiders receive some private information that their firm may perform poorly in the near future, should they inform investors about this adverse information as soon as possible, or should they wait to release this information? Further, is the manner of communication by firms related to their performance in the short or the long run?
A concrete example of the above situation is that of a firm contemplating a dividend cut in the future. Firm insiders may have received some private information about a potential decline in future earnings, or that the current level of dividends is unsustainable for some other reasons (e.g., a change in the competitive environment requiring it to retain more cash within the firm). Under these circumstances, should insiders release a statement to the market that they are reviewing the firm’s dividend policy, and indicating that there is a possibility of a dividend cut (in other words, “prepare” the market)? Or should they wait till they in fact decide to cut their firm’s dividends before making any announcement?
While there have been several theoretical as well as empirical analyses of dividend signaling (see, e.g., Bhattacharya (1979), John and Williams (1985), and Miller and Rock (1985) for theoretical models), unfortunately, there has been no systematic empirical analysis so far in the literature that provides guidance to decision makers regarding the right way to communicate adverse private information to the equity market. The objective of this paper is to fill this gap in the literature by providing the first empirical analysis of a firm’s choice between preparing and not preparing the market before a dividend cut and the consequences of market preparation.
…continue reading: Communicating Private Information to the Equity Market before a Dividend Cut