This time last year appeared to hold the promise of increased deal activity, as a series of significant strategic deals were announced in the waning days of 2010 and fundamentals appeared to be aligned. That promise began to manifest itself in the opening months of the year, with several significant deals. As the year wore on, though, deal activity was dampened by several troubling environmental realities: an alarming sovereign debt and bank crisis in Europe, persistent U.S. monetary policy promising sustained low interest rates and a flat yield curve, a weak U.S. housing market and a tricky legal and regulatory landscape.
There were, though, some very bright spots. Leading the way were transformative deals by Comerica, Capital One and PNC. We also witnessed increasingly ambitious efforts by several stronger community banks to intelligently strengthen their franchises through successive smaller acquisitions in strategically important markets. Bank M&A in 2012 will likely remain episodic, as current ongoing business and regulatory conditions and weak equity market valuations will surely take more time to work through. Still, we should see a continued trend of stronger banks making selective, targeted acquisitions focused more on securing their long-term competitive positioning and maintaining balance sheet strength (and less on a short-term boost to quarterly earnings) as well as increasing pressure on smaller banks from several fronts to accept current valuations.





