I don’t know enough about prediction markets, but here’s what one of them says about the likely outcome of the election:
The tide is running. It’s Obama’s to lose at this point, and he’s too smart and well organized for that.
Hat tip to Brian Oberkirch.
I agree, but I don’t look forward to re-running the Hoover recession plan. Obama has no track record of standing up to his own party; he’ll cheerfully go along as Reid and Pelosi put forward higher taxes and protectionism in the teeth of a stock market plunge and a recession. I suppose I’ll get a small bit of Schadenfreude watching the tech bloggers, who mostly favor Obama, becoming stunned as the kinds of Cap Gains taxes he favors take what’s left of the startup space and strangle it.
He’ll also cheerfully sign off on atrocities like the “Fairness Doctrine”, “hate speech” laws, and the like.
The sad part is, McCain would likely do about 90% of the same stuff, and where he would differ, it would be equally stupid, just in different directions.
The Republic survived Woodrow Wilson, so I’m fairly certain it’ll survive Obama. I’m also certain that regardless of who wins this election (and it wil probably be Obama), they’ll be a one termer. All of the economic winds are combining for a perfect storm of “blame whoever happens to be sitting there”.
One of the places that I go to for election predections is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. I like the way that site displays information.
-N
Doc
My choice is the Iowa markets
Has a track record
Current
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES08_WTA.cfm
Agree on McCain is likely toast
But also think that Obama “new” is already wearing off
Hunkering down and “going local”
I don’t agree with Bill on everything, but we had a good conversation not long ago
http://www.billmckibben.com/
PS
http://looneydunes.blogspot.com/2008/01/justin-wolfers-gets-it.html
Much more here
http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/index.shtml
Ciao
Chip
Prediction markets have an excellent track record at predicting election outcomes. Also in general most of the prediction markets have been moving in line over the past 3 months.
Prior to the Republican National Convention Obama was trading at about 65%. Then when Palin was announced he slid to about 55% where he stayed until the economy started to unravel. Since Lehman Brothers went bust every day he has gained in the market to his current price of about 80%. It is very hard to see unless their is a dramatic reversal how McCain can win now.
This page has links to all the sites trading the presidential contract: http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_win_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election
“… he’s too smart and well organized for that.”
Isn’t this what they said about Gore and Kerry?
This election is far from over.
Sorry, Ed. It’s over. And Gore’s and Kerry’s weren’t nearly as organized as Obama’s campaign. Or as engaging.
No way it is over. A lot can happen right up until the day of the election, so I wouldn’t count on Obama winning yet. If Obama thought he had it than why would ACORN be doing it’s thing for and risk problems for Obama?
Leave a Reply