Comments on: Betting on Obama http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/ Same old blog, brand new place Tue, 01 Dec 2009 04:14:59 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Kevin http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-93620 Kevin Sun, 12 Oct 2008 17:45:04 +0000 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/?p=1018#comment-93620 No way it is over. A lot can happen right up until the day of the election, so I wouldn't count on Obama winning yet. If Obama thought he had it than why would ACORN be doing it's thing for and risk problems for Obama? No way it is over. A lot can happen right up until the day of the election, so I wouldn’t count on Obama winning yet. If Obama thought he had it than why would ACORN be doing it’s thing for and risk problems for Obama?

]]> By: Doc Searls http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-93228 Doc Searls Sat, 11 Oct 2008 06:52:50 +0000 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/?p=1018#comment-93228 Sorry, Ed. It's over. And Gore's and Kerry's weren't nearly as organized as Obama's campaign. Or as engaging. Sorry, Ed. It’s over. And Gore’s and Kerry’s weren’t nearly as organized as Obama’s campaign. Or as engaging.

]]> By: Ed Brenegar http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-92770 Ed Brenegar Fri, 10 Oct 2008 01:45:46 +0000 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/?p=1018#comment-92770 "... he’s too smart and well organized for that." Isn't this what they said about Gore and Kerry? This election is far from over. “… he’s too smart and well organized for that.”
Isn’t this what they said about Gore and Kerry?
This election is far from over.

]]> By: Nigel Eccles http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-92636 Nigel Eccles Thu, 09 Oct 2008 15:19:03 +0000 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/?p=1018#comment-92636 Prediction markets have an excellent track record at predicting election outcomes. Also in general most of the prediction markets have been moving in line over the past 3 months. Prior to the Republican National Convention Obama was trading at about 65%. Then when Palin was announced he slid to about 55% where he stayed until the economy started to unravel. Since Lehman Brothers went bust every day he has gained in the market to his current price of about 80%. It is very hard to see unless their is a dramatic reversal how McCain can win now. This page has links to all the sites trading the presidential contract: http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_win_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election Prediction markets have an excellent track record at predicting election outcomes. Also in general most of the prediction markets have been moving in line over the past 3 months.

Prior to the Republican National Convention Obama was trading at about 65%. Then when Palin was announced he slid to about 55% where he stayed until the economy started to unravel. Since Lehman Brothers went bust every day he has gained in the market to his current price of about 80%. It is very hard to see unless their is a dramatic reversal how McCain can win now.

This page has links to all the sites trading the presidential contract: http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_win_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election

]]> By: Chip http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-92412 Chip Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:49:33 +0000 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/?p=1018#comment-92412 PS http://looneydunes.blogspot.com/2008/01/justin-wolfers-gets-it.html Much more here http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/index.shtml Ciao Chip PS

http://looneydunes.blogspot.com/2008/01/justin-wolfers-gets-it.html

Much more here
http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/index.shtml

Ciao
Chip

]]> By: Chip http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-92411 Chip Thu, 09 Oct 2008 00:44:16 +0000 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/?p=1018#comment-92411 Doc My choice is the Iowa markets Has a track record Current http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES08_WTA.cfm Agree on McCain is likely toast But also think that Obama "new" is already wearing off Hunkering down and "going local" I don't agree with Bill on everything, but we had a good conversation not long ago http://www.billmckibben.com/ Doc

My choice is the Iowa markets
Has a track record

Current
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES08_WTA.cfm

Agree on McCain is likely toast
But also think that Obama “new” is already wearing off

Hunkering down and “going local”

I don’t agree with Bill on everything, but we had a good conversation not long ago
http://www.billmckibben.com/

]]> By: Neil Gorman http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-92324 Neil Gorman Wed, 08 Oct 2008 19:18:04 +0000 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/?p=1018#comment-92324 One of the places that I go to for election predections is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. I like the way that site displays information. -N One of the places that I go to for election predections is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. I like the way that site displays information.

-N

]]> By: James Robertson http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/2008/10/08/betting-on-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-92269 James Robertson Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:10:29 +0000 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/doc/?p=1018#comment-92269 I agree, but I don't look forward to re-running the Hoover recession plan. Obama has no track record of standing up to his own party; he'll cheerfully go along as Reid and Pelosi put forward higher taxes and protectionism in the teeth of a stock market plunge and a recession. I suppose I'll get a small bit of Schadenfreude watching the tech bloggers, who mostly favor Obama, becoming stunned as the kinds of Cap Gains taxes he favors take what's left of the startup space and strangle it. He'll also cheerfully sign off on atrocities like the "Fairness Doctrine", "hate speech" laws, and the like. The sad part is, McCain would likely do about 90% of the same stuff, and where he would differ, it would be equally stupid, just in different directions. The Republic survived Woodrow Wilson, so I'm fairly certain it'll survive Obama. I'm also certain that regardless of who wins this election (and it wil probably be Obama), they'll be a one termer. All of the economic winds are combining for a perfect storm of "blame whoever happens to be sitting there". I agree, but I don’t look forward to re-running the Hoover recession plan. Obama has no track record of standing up to his own party; he’ll cheerfully go along as Reid and Pelosi put forward higher taxes and protectionism in the teeth of a stock market plunge and a recession. I suppose I’ll get a small bit of Schadenfreude watching the tech bloggers, who mostly favor Obama, becoming stunned as the kinds of Cap Gains taxes he favors take what’s left of the startup space and strangle it.

He’ll also cheerfully sign off on atrocities like the “Fairness Doctrine”, “hate speech” laws, and the like.

The sad part is, McCain would likely do about 90% of the same stuff, and where he would differ, it would be equally stupid, just in different directions.

The Republic survived Woodrow Wilson, so I’m fairly certain it’ll survive Obama. I’m also certain that regardless of who wins this election (and it wil probably be Obama), they’ll be a one termer. All of the economic winds are combining for a perfect storm of “blame whoever happens to be sitting there”.

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