We sold it and bought the wife a BMW Z4. Its all but impossible to do anything other than check the tire pressure without a factory-certified mechanic.

OTOH, I drive a 74 Toyota Landcruiser with a power-train scavenged from a ‘98 Chevy Blazer. Given its Frankenstein nature, I’m left doing all the mechanic work on it myself.

Polar opposites in one house, and ‘road trips’ aren’t a fact of life where we live.

Operating systems are a bubble, too. What is already available, be it XP (often seen as free), MacOS X (comes with your mapple) or linux (really is free) works well enough to suit 90% of the solution space. As you’ve suggested, they’re not unlike building material, and I’ve come to the conclusion that best is often the enemy of “good enough”, and tend to side with “worse is better” these days.

There’s the added effect of new cars losing so much value in a short time too compared to a 5 year old one.

Maybe producing viable electric cars will change this. Maybe people will want to pay a premium for such a vehicle and maybe they will hold there value better.

For a while anyway.

There was a time when just getting in the car for a Sunday drive was enough. I don’t know many people who do that anymore.

Even as late as the 70s and perhaps the 80s we all waited to see what the new cars would look like with major redesigns from Detroit coming every other year.

There was a whole culture around cars that is fading.

Most professional sales people have witnessed this phenomenon for years because they understand that over time everything becomes a commodity.

Ephraim

1) Food – it’s been a core investment for me (private investments, not traded equities) for a couple of decades.
a) people eat
b) despite economic downturns, they spend less of their budget on calories every year, so tend to spend more per calorie (therefore investments in gourmet/speciality foods)
c) tied to fuel costs – current focus is on “local food” … following a trend

2) bubbles –
a) we still have trains, the most efficient mode of surface transport (other than water).
b) Some newspapers will morph, but are having a hard time. The model is to move newsprint carrying advertising. But you know this one better than most
c) same for other modes of communication, it’s fun to watch the transistions

3) Cars and the like
Grew up with gasoline in my veins, old hot rodder, still a motorcyclists etc. Hydrocarbons are and will stay with us (I have my posting on Long Bets), but having just put $470 in my 15yr old Caddilac (STS/Northstar) which is $30 below my annual mental limit, I’m happy with it.

Agree with you on German cars – and mechanics
I’ve had over 1/2 dozen Honda’s, happy with them, several GM products – niggly things break, but powertrains last forever.
Tires, brakes etc are considered “consumables” – suspension, steering, radiator, water pump, headlights, hoses, wiring harnesses, radio, dashboard lights …those I wonder about, should be at least 100,000 mile items.

Only “new” car in last decade was used Honda S2000.
Last “new” motorcycle was mid-80’s
Good used is cheaper and greener than new.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours

My view on what a bubble is, is that it is when the growth of users or consumption of a service or goods gets beyond the normal rate of growth.

When you say the Newspaper is a bubble, I disagree with the usage of bubble.

If you pointed out that in the 70s and 80s of the increasing number of NEWSPAPER PRODUCT PROVIDERS as a bubble, then I’d agree.

But if saying we are replacing PAPER MEDIUM with another medium and the lower usage of paper medium is a sign of a collapsing bubble, then I don’t agree about that at all.

That is a technological change. A creative destruction. It’s not speculation (abnormal growth). The increased and decreased use of a medium is not a usage bubble. It’s not even a bubble.

The housing bubble was a bubble because people who cannot afford a home bought and got a home, and those who did not need more than 1 home got more than 1 home. Those extra homes are abnormal growth agents, and therefore the growth of the housing market became a housing bubble.

In terms of Automobile? I am still trying to figure out if it is a bubble in terms of the transportation context.

And by the way, I export auto parts. A water pump from a good Chinese factory cost about $20 USD wholesale price maximum in the United States. Unless you are getting imported parts from Europe for your VW, otherwise, having all the parts from Aftermarket sources still can’t come close to 5k, unless you have expensive labour costs at the mechanics which I’m sure if you haggle, you can get a good discount.

Their profit margin is H U G E.

That’s one reason why the perception of Japanese and German cars will be a benefit at the moment – I’ve put huge mileages on Japanese cars in the past and found them amazingly good – and my current slightly impractical transport is a 15 year old convertible Nissan.

And Mike’s post is really interesting, and one I think I can agree with – the essentials – e.g. food, shelter, undertakers, heating, transportation etc will always remain, but the approach taken at various times is the bubble element, whether that’s buying rather than renting, or using solar panels etc to generate heating and power ‘off the grid’.

I’ve long believed that the principles and skills of editors and journalists will remain, but newspapers and newsgathering will change, and it’s being reinforced with every new development.