Drugs, Law and Conflict

Photo of Guinea-Bissau soldiers with intercepted cocaine, courtesy of Semana.

Although the violence pre-dates the surge of organised drug trafficking in the region, the possibility of huge illicit riches has increased the stakes in the power struggle, leading to a vicious cycle of criminality and political instability, the beginnings of which are visible not only in Guinea-Bissau but also in neighbouring Guinea.

This from the International Crisis Group briefing released today on the challenges facing the West African drug transit country of Guinea-Bissau. The report highlights the importance of thoughtful and coordinated security sector reform efforts to strengthen institutions broken by civil war and, now, drugs. Download and read the full report here.

Small Wars Journal recently published a clear, short and insightful article by Roger Pardo-Maurer on the US-Mexico security relationship.

Titled “How to Think about Mexico and Beyond,” it wisely moves beyond questions of immediacy to look at the tough long-term challenges. Pardo-Maurer, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs, writes,

Destroying the drug cartels must be an urgent priority, and there is much the U.S. can do to help, not least because we are a huge part of the problem. But the selection of our strategic ends is of crticial importance in applying the means. If the U.S. objective is to help a friendly democracy eliminate the threat that druglords and narcoterrorists pose to the state, we have a broad array of successful experience to draw on. If on the other hand, our goal is to “stop the flow of drugs”, we might as well wave the white flag now.

He continues on to describe the challenges facing Mexico in an unusually comprehensive manner — looking at water and oil issues, economic competitiveness and inequality. My only question is exactly what “broad array of successful experience” the author refers to with regard to US institution building and stabilization efforts… especially given his former work with the Contras in Nicaragua. Still, a highly recommended read.

**Peruvian police search for drug labs in the jungle. Photo courtesy of Moises Saman for the New York Times.

The Woodrow Wilson Center is featuring an event in DC this Thursday, entitled “Andean Cocaine: The Making of a Global Drug”, featuring several impressive speakers.

Paul Gootenberg–whose recent article “Talking About the Flow: Drugs, Borders, and the Discourse of Drug Control,” a friend just sent me–is among them.

In March, Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution released a comprehensive paper detailing policy options for dealing with the violent drug market in Mexico. She wisely separates out three oft-conflated questions under discussion:

1. how to significantly disrupt drug supply to the U.S., reduce consumption of illicit substances in the U.S., and reduce the global drug trade;
2. how to reroute drug trafficking from Mexico; and
3. how to reduce violence in the drug market in Mexico and suppress crime in Mexico to manageable levels.

Asserting that Mexico’s intense violence represents an “aberration” for illegal markets and imposes high transaction costs for all actors involved, Felbab-Brown suggests four paths toward greater market regulation and reduced violence.

See abstract and download full paper here.

In late April, RAND Europe released a report on the global drug market with damning evidence that the war on drugs is failing. Overall, the study found “no evidence that the global drug problem was reduced during the UNGASS period from 1998 to 2007.” Key points include:

• ”Drug retail prices have generally declined in Western countries, including those that increased the stringency of their enforcement against sellers, such as the U.K. and the U.S.A… There are no indications that drugs have become more difficult to obtain.”

• “Interventions against production can affect where drugs are produced… However, there is a lack of evidence that controls can reduce total global production. The same applies to trafficking.”

• “The ties to terrorism and armed insurrection are important but only in a few places, such as Afghanistan and Colombia.”

• “The study estimates a range for the total global cannabis retail market in 2005 between €40 Billion and €120 Billion, with the best estimate being about [€62.25 Billion].”

• “Enforcement of drug prohibitions has caused substantial unintended harms; many were predictable.”

Download the report here.