To make meaning of our losses, we diminish the losses of others. This makes future losses more likely.  If you believe that war is a Law of Nature¹, our children’s future ceases to exist.

It was a week before the legal Veteran’s Day. It was, in fact, during the new abridged incarnation of a proud Cambridge tradition – The Count. The last hand count in 1995 took  four days to hand count the 19183  Proportional Representation ballots.  Since then, it is usually done the same day as the balloting. This time, because of the first truly significant write-in campaign in Cambridge history,  it took two days.

The Veteran’s gathering centered on World War II – “The Big One” as Dobie Gillis’ father used to say.  Other wars were mentioned but discussion kept coming back to WWII. It was the Best of Wars. It was the Worst of Wars.  It was the Morally Unquestionable War. They were the worst of monsters. We were the noblest of heroes. Dresden, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki? Perhaps regrettable, but justifiable.  Really?

Meet A Veteran for Peace: Tonight @ the Brattle Theater

David Fillingham of the Smedley Butler Brigade*

I met David Fillingham at the School of Government formerly known as John F. Kennedy. He was not invited when General Petreus was. Nor for that matter on any other day. He dropped in on Halloween. But he was invited to the Brattle Theater. You are too. Here’s your invite:

Friends,

I have been asked to do a Q&A for a showing of The Good Soldier at the
Brattle Theatre in Harvard Sq on Veterans Day Nov 11 Weds at 7:30 PM.
Go to www.thegoodsoldier.com for a trailer.

It is being billed as a national day of conversation,(20+ States) and
is being promoted by Bill Moyers on PBS. Please come if you are
available and interested.

–
Peace and Peach Pie,
David Fillingham

dfillingham at earthlink dot com

—————

I have to guard the library, but if you go, please tell David I sent you – that ’saving face’ thing.

¹Danny Greenberger, a physicist of the General Relativity flavor at CCNY, believes that there aren’t really any Laws of Physics. He has two universes that illustrate the point. Iwill elaborate them at some point and add to it Sidney Coleman’s observation about progress in field theory. I am more serious about it than Sidney and simultaneously more tentative and more general about it than Danny. Then there is the question to what extent a Theory of Human Affairs can be said to be analogous to The Laws of Physics.  To appear.

*Smedley Butler, at the time of his death, the most decorated U.S. Marine in history, wrote “War is a Racket”.  The Boston chapter of Veterans for Peace took his name.

Discovered America? How can you discover something that’s already in use? See that BMW over there? Let’s discover it.                                   —-Dick Gregory

What if “Columbus Day” was given the more accurate name “Celebrate Genocide Day”?
—-The Professor who dares to ask what if²

PWDAWI, makes several citations to Howard Zinn’s A People’s History of the United States.

Democracy Now! today [after headlines] {large raster BitTorrent download} is an interview with Canadian Cree singer/songwriter Buffy St-Marie. Included is a performance of ‘Universal Soldier’. In Buffy’s view, for a Native American to ‘make it’ requires a lucky accident. She spends her money on education from the Native American point of view.

¹The Common White Man In The Street.

²I don’t know where she teaches. I would say definitely not Harvard, but that would be snarky. I’ll just say definitely not in Harvard economics or government. Jack Womack has been emeritized by Harvard history, but there are still some folks around who question.
That said, I still reserve the right to question whether Harvard’s pair of world historical jacks question enough.

Martin Luther King 1964 [Lib of Cong] Barack Obama 2008 [U.S. Government]

It’s the day after Martin died 41 years ago. In October I echoed the warning Martin sounded a year to the day before he died. It has gone unheeded.

Seventeen days ago marked the sixth year since the onslaught of “shock and awe” in Iraq. Harvard’s Legal Left commemorated the day with a talk by Pakistani-British journalist and activist Tariq Ali. He had some positive notes about very recent events reported in the Harvard Law Record.

But most of his remarks were sobering and echoed remarks made on Democracy Now! and in his book The Duel: Pakistan on the Flight Path of American Power.

Duncan Kennedy introducing Tariq Ali

Tariq Ali

Tariq was erudite, knowledgable about ‘facts on the ground’ and eloquent. But no less eloquent was a security guard from Nigeria with considerable anger at the arrogance and ignorance of Americans, “Afghanistan is a giant killer! You should look to history!”

The Arredondos – Alex, Melida, and Carlos – of Uphams Corner, MA leading the march Oct. 11, 2008.

A year to the day before he was assassinated, Martin King¹ delivered the broadest critique of American foreign policy and political economy of his career. Not only was it accurate to the time, it was remarkably prescient. Read/listen to the speach and you will understand why electing Obama is nowhere near enough. We must do more – much, much more.

Among them…

or outside the Boston area.

This is not, “Get out of Iraq in a decade rather than a century.” It is not, “Deploy over the horizon” or “Move the war back to Afghanistan.”

It is beyond Iraq, beyond Oil, beyond the continual war for primitive extraction of resources which Martin warned us about -most likely at the cost of his life.

¹I don’t doubt the value of his doctorate. Being named for the catalyst of the Protestant Reformation is not lost on me. But he was a man like me. I cannot evade responsibility by pretending he was of a higher order of being.

Harvard alum and employee Gustavo at Tanner Fountain, North Yard.

Despite all the posturing, do we really know what happened? Who was responsible? Was the U.S. response justified? Has it been useful?

I still remember, Sabrina Daniel, daughter of fallen NYC firefighter Vernon Cherry, on the day of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan¹.

It don’t make me feel no better, because I know that somewhere halfway around the world there is a daughter just like me, who just lost her father.

¹Firefighter Cherry was still missing at the time. Sabrina’s mother, Joanne Cherry, would not hear of the idea that he was lost. In early January 2009 his turnout coat was found at ground zero as well as the bodies of three other firefighters from the Brooklyn based Ladder 118 = “fire under the bridge.”

Ladder 118 enroute to the World Trade Center, Sept. 11, 2001

Ongoing inquiries:

911truth.org

Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth

Of the 648 groups that were active at some point between 1968 and 2006, a total of 268 ended during that period. Another 136 groups splintered, and 244 remained active. As depicted in the figure, the authors found that most ended for one of two reasons: They were penetrated and eliminated by local police and intelligence agencies (40 percent), or they reached a peaceful political accommodation with their government (43 percent). Most terrorist groups that ended because of politics sought narrow policy goals. The narrower the goals, the more likely the group was to achieve them through political accommodation — and thus the more likely the government and terrorists were to reach a negotiated settlement.

More…

Most of the people of the world, including the U.S. Joint Chiefs think invading Iran is a bad idea. But you have Dick Cheney, arguably diminished in power, but is he still a big enough tail to wag the American dog? He still seems to be able to wag the Bush. What if Israeli hardliners launch a pre-emptive attack knowing they can’t win a war by themselves. Will this smaller tail try to wag the Cheney tail in a direction it already wants to go.

The folks at Middle East Strategy at Harvard, more specifically, Chuck Freilich, seem to think the consequences of invading Iran would be small.⁴ Sounds a lot like the runup to Iraq – flowers and chocolates, it’ll pay for itself, shock and awe will eliminate resistance. How’s that worked out? Chuck Freilich, by the way, was Israel’s Deputy National Security Adviser for Foreign Affairs. So there’s that ‘vested interest’ thing again. It’s not about Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. For Israeli hardliners it’s about losing, some years from now, the nuclear monopoly in the region. For Bush-Cheney-Haliburton it’s about control of oil.

I hope to tell you about Bradford Little, highly eccentric but correct. Who’s “entitled” to nuclear weapons?

a) Iran.

b)Israel.

c)United States of America.

d)All of the above.

e)None of the above.

f)Nobody anywhere.

It’s (f). I will show all work, but it will be necessary to attach additional sheets.

¹Yet another way of dunning Congress for money, but because National Security is involved only a handful of “select” Congresspersons need to know the details.

²I’m slowly coming to appreciate the Cockburn clan. I did, like everybody in my generation, read Alexander when he wrote with James Ridgeway in the Village Voice. Just recently, I discovered that Harvard’s Legal Left has it’s very own member of the clan. My only hope is that the Federalists don’t squeeze the rainbow out of her.

³There are Harvard Fellows and there are Harvard Fellows. There are Junior Fellows who are top shelf post docs. There are faculty members who are Senior Fellows. But a Fellow, is a member of The Corporation. Rubin was the Fellow who lent the rest of the Fellows the subprime President recently departed.

⁴Not known for dovishness, former National Security Advisor Zbignew Brezinski in testimony before Congress [English with French subtitles] disagrees with Freilich’s assessment.

On May 15th, Iraq Veterans Against the War (IVAW) and the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) begin the process of righting this imbalance with Winter Soldier on the Hill. Nine members of IVAW will testify before the CPC about rules of engagement, the killing and abuse of civilians, the use of drop weapons, and the true consequences of the “surge.”

The original Winter Soldier investigation during the Vietnam War, ultimately led to Congressional hearings and the recognition of mainstream politicians that the American people were not going to tolerate an endless war in Southeast Asia. Is this event part of a similar chain of events? Will mainstream politicians recognize that the American people will not tolerate an endless war in the Middle East?

Watch It Live! [Hearings begin at 9:30 AM, Pacifica coverage starts at 9:00 AM] Details on the IVAW website.

Meanwhile, on the floor on the floor of the House, $170 Billion of addition funding for the Iraq war is being considered. The IVAW website has good resources for contacting your congresspersons. And while you’re doing that you can help stop future war in Iran that Bush, Inc. has been warming up for, for many long times now. From the Dorchester People for Peace newsletter:

Oppose IRAN “DIVESTMENT” BILL (House 4270) at State House—

Please contact your representatives! H.4270 has now been referred to the Committee on Ways and Means: Rep. Bob DeLeo is the chairman- Telephone: 617-722-2990 E-Mail: Robert.DeLeo@state.ma.us; House members (includes St.Fleur of Dorchester and Mallia of JP), Senate members (includes Wilkerson, Joyce) Let them know you are opposed to measures aimed at raising tensions in the region and promoting the slide toward war with Iran – and would cost the system $5million and increase annual administrative expenses by up to $40,000.

You can read the innocuous-seeming text of the House 4270 here. DPP member Jeff Klein testified against the measure at a hearing April 10 (read the testimony here) and wrote an article published in this week’s Dorchester Reporter, April 24, 2008, page 10

Many useful resources on Iran, the nuclear issue and US-Iran relations available at these sites:

http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/, http://irannuclearwatch.blogspot.com, http://www.newiranpolicy.org/

All of this raises some interesting questions. Should we, as my young friend from Pakistan suggests, frame oppostion to the ‘war¹‘ in Iraq as opposition to empire? Is capitalism the inescapable cause of imperial excesses? Or is it merely the current mode d’emploi? [Scroll down.]

¹Forumgal of Dorchester People for Peace says that it should more properly called an occupation. I don’t know who she thinks she is, but I think she is correct.

GEN. DAVID PETRAEUS, MULTINATIONAL FORCE IRAQ COMMANDER: And Iran has fueled the violence, as I noted, in a particularly damaging way through its lethal support to the special groups.

But later describing how the conflagration in Basra was brought to an end:

PETRAEUS: Iran, at the end of the day, clearly played a role as an arbiter, if you will, for talks among all of the different parties to that particular action.

Jay interviews, Sabah al Nasseri is Professor of Political Science (Middle East Politics) at York University, Toronto.

SABEH AL NASSERI, PROF., POLITICAL SCIENCE, YORK UNIVERSITY: I think because there are two interests. One is in the short term. The other one is the long run. In the short term, the United States is interested in securing a security agreement with the Iraqi government, because the Iraqi Parliament decided last year that there will be no extension of the international troops in Iraq beyond December 2008. So since last August, the United States is trying to convince the Iraqi executive to sign a long-term security agreement with the United States to keep the US troops and military bases in Iraq.

JAY: So the very legal basis of the American occupation could be in jeopardy if they’re too aggressive towards Iran.

AL NASSERI: Exactly. On the other hand, the whole report of Petraeus and the Iraq ambassador was in the long run to say we need the US troops, we need the US troop presence in Iraq, we need the military bases in Iraq, because Iran is the most dangerous place now, because they have affiliation to al-Qaeda, they support these so-called special groups, they create a lot of instabilities in Iraq, etcetera.

JAY: There’s certainly no evidence that Iran has any connection with al-Qaeda.

AL NASSERI: Exactly. So in the long run, this is the message of the neocons. Iran is an issue. But now–not now.

I’ve found a video clip of James Gilligan’s testimony at Winter Soldier¹. First off, I missed that he was promoted to sergeant while on inactive duty. During his testimony, the IVAW A/V personnel had trouble with his slides. Between that and other inaccuracies I’ve committed, Sargeant Gilligan has had a hard time being heard. I will be talking to him soon. You can read the transcript of the incident mentioned in my earlier post. Then watch the video again.

Striking to me was James’ struggle to be precise as he retold events which he clearly feels should not have happened. Obviously some of the other soldiers felt that same way and wondered whether he was to blame:

Later that night they called me over to their tent and they asked me if i was qualified to call for fire. and i told them i was not qualified, however i was asked and i gave the responses needed to … to quickly assess the danger and proceed forward with the mission. My sargeant came over and luckily intervened before anything got hostile. There was no repercussion.

His last remark on this incident was clearly delimited as hearsay²:

… this is again what I was told… that our unit had informed the Afghanis of the village that if the Taliban does it again, you let us know.

I don’t know what the IVAW plans in the way of corroborating the testimony of the Winter Soldiers, but they might be able to use some help. Maybe some law students?

Because a Winter Soldier should be heard.

¹All the clips are on the IVAW site, but their software is too recent for the computers in the Harvard Science Center

²Those of us not in the law school who once watched “Law and Order” believe that ‘hearsay’ has limited probative value. I would be grateful to hear a professional opinion on this. Gratitude is beyond any monetary value.

We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. -’widely believed to be’ Karl Rove[1] [Karl wasn't actually at the rally. Photo: Wikipedia]

We on the left should frame our opposition to the war as opposition to empire.

- Adaner Usmani

—
Some folks at Harvard Law School are doing just that with their event series, Confronting Empire: 5 Years of War in Iraq. The series is over, but the website has a link for each and every speaker, many of whom have freely downloadable articles. I’m told that proceedings from it, will, in time, appear. [And I'll point you to my faves.] The series was sponsored by, Justice for Palestine at Harvard Law and:

—

Harvard Anti War Coalition passing Langdell Hall, Harvard Law School.
Skewers in the foreground each commemorate 100 deaths, Iraqi and American, since March 19, 2003. Signs along the “Iraqi Freedom Trail” explain.

A report of this action for 5yearstoomany.org and one for the rally on Boston Common.

^[1]In an earlier edition, I quoted Karl as saying, “We make our own reality. We’re an empire now.” I relied on memory. I’m sorry. What appears in the text now is the quotation reported by Ron Suskind in an opinion piece of October 17, 2004 of the New York Times Magazine, Without a Doubt. The quote is from Paragraph 8 on Page 7.

The aide said that guys like me were ”in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who ”believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ”That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. ”We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

As you can see, Ron attributed to “the aide”. In paragraph 7 on Page 7, he uses the phrase “senior advisor’. It was only later that undisclosed pundits decided it was Rove. There are some, who, as I did, make the unqualified claim that it was Rove. I can’t find anyone who will say how they know what they claim. Again, I’m sorry. That said, I’ll bet it was Rove.

The Harvard – Cambridge Walk for Peace will have their regular Wednesday vigil meeting at the John Harvard statue at noon.

A group formed this year, the Harvard Anti-War Coalition, which brought us:

***HAWC members and [not really] John Harvard in their Abu Gharib finery. [Photo: HAWC]***

will hold a rally. From their Facebook entry:

Rally Against the War March 19, 2:30pm
To End the Occupation Science Center
For Immediate Peace Harvard Yard

Join students, teachers, staff, and community members to rally against the war on the 5th Anniversary of the invasion and occupation of Iraq. [Black Hood optional. Ed.]

The rally kicks-off at 2:30pm and will feature a great array of speakers and student groups. At 3:30pm, the rally will march to the Boston Common to join a citywide vigil[see below].

**Bring All The Troops Home Now!
**End All Funding for the Iraq War Now!
**Don’t Attack Iran
**Support Our Communities, Fund Human Needs!
**Stop the Attacks on Civil Liberties, Defend Human Rights!

—–

Finally, from 4:30 PM – 6:30 PM at the Park Street T station:

***”Answer Cindy’s Questions” Vigil for Cindy Sheehan, Park Street T station, August 13, 2005.***

United for Peace with Justice is sponsoring a vigil, one of over 660 nationwide. The 5 Years Too Many Website has a locator for events nationwide.

¹Depending on whether you believe the Iraq Body Count website or extrapolations of the Ocober 2006 John’s Hopkins Cluster Analysis published in the british medical journal The Lancet.

²Depending on whether you believe the Government Accountability Office or Bilmes and Stiglitz.

Hart Viges in Iraq [Photo: IVAW]

We were driving down Baghdad one day and ah … we found a dead body on the side of the road. So we all pulled over to … to secure it and wait for MP’s or whatever authorities would come and take care of this … this dead man here who was clearly murdered. And my friends jumped off and started taking pictures with him, you know, with big ol’ smiles on their faces … and they said, ‘Hey, Viges, you want a picture with this guy?’ And I said no. But no not in the context of that’s really messed up because it’s just wrong … on a ethical basis, but I said no because it wasn’t my kill. You shouldn’t take trophies for things you didn’t kill. I mean that’s … that’s where my mindset is…WAS back then. Cuz I wasn’t even upset that this man was really dead. They shouldn’t have been taking credit for something they didn’t do.

-Hart Viges; 82 Airborne Division 1st 325 HHC Battalion Morters¹ Testimony at Winter Soldier, Silver Springs Maryland March 14, 2008

The Monday March 17, 2008 edition of Democracy Now! has a large segment covering Winter Solder testimony as well as a retrospective of the My Lai massacre including an interview with Seymour Hersch. Most of the Tuesday March 18, 2008 edition is devoted to Winter Soldier including Hart Viges’ testimony.

Tomorrow marks the 5th Anniversary of the invasion of Iraq.

¹“I joined the army right after September eleventh and asked for airborne … asked for infantry and ended up with 82nd Airborne Division 1st 325 HHC Battalion Morters … ‘hunters in the sky’ … ‘death from above’”

Photo presented at Winter Soldier hearings. [Photo: IVAW]

Sunday, March 16 – Silver Springs Maryland. Winter Soldier testimony concluded today with two sessions:

10:00AM – 1:00PM The Breakdown of the Military
2:00PM – 3:15PM The Future of GI Resistance

Iraq Veterans Against the War has posted photos from Saturday’s testimony. The’ve promised clips, but they haven’t appeared yet. As of 10:40 PM only a few clips have appeared on the net. Alternative video news startup Independent World Television has 8 clips on their The Real News Net Beta site. DemocracyNow! will undoubtedly devote a good portion of Monday’s show to the hearings.

Banners:

One Day of the Iraq War = 720 Million Dollars: How Would You Spend It?
One Day of the Iraq War = 423,529 Children with Health Care.
One Day of the Iraq War = 1,274,336 Homes with Renewable Electricity
One Day of the Iraq War = 6, 482 Families with Homes.
One Day of the Iraq War = 1,153,846 Free School Lunches.
One Day of the Iraq War = 34,904 Four Year Scholarships for University Students

Viewing the webcast from Silver Springs, Md in the Parlor.

Corporal Gilligan has challenged the accuracy of my report. Corrections to appear. 3-28-08

Former Marine Corporal James Gilligan, gunner on humvee, tearfully reported an incident where he was pressed into service as a forward artillery observer despite not being “authorized to direct fire”. He was the only one in his unit who had seen the flash. He reported that they had taken fire. HQ asked him for the azimuth where the fire had originated. His GPS was too slow so he pulled out his compass. He now realizes that his M240 almost certainly disturbed the compass. After three morter barrages he reported seeing no hits on the target. A fourth barrage – nothing. He reported the target out of range, and told his driver to pull out, but heard fifth and sixth barrages go off. A few moments later, his humvee turned and he saw an Afghani village in flames.

¹Transcript.

[Photo: Democracy Now!]

That would be the latest accounting of the cost of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. Professor Linda Bilmes¹ of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz appeared on the Friday broadcast of Democracy Now! If you missed it on satellite, cable TV, and radio, you can download it from the web and play it on your computer.

¹In an earlier edition, I mispeled ‘Bilmes’. I apologize. As for the marginal impertinence of the title, I’m sticking with the ‘competing with Drudge’ defense.

Assembly at Noon

“Will do.”

We can’t wait for an election which will give us a choice of people who will ‘manage’ a situation that the Neo-Cons, even as you read, are wiring to last a long, long time.

If we cannot reach them¹, we must impeach them.

Time for the Harvard Cambridge peace walk².

Update: The National Defense Authorization Act excludes use of funds for permanent military bases in Iraq. George W. Bush released a signing statement that he intends to ignore that provision. Joseph A. Palermo finds this to be yet another reason to impeach and Gary Hart calls this lastest move in the NeoCon plan what it is: the Burden of Empire.

¹The ship has pretty much sailed on that one.

²Noon every Wednesday. Meet at the John Harvard Statue i.e. The Statue of At Least Three Lies. The Berkman server clock is wrong by an hour.

They came to deliver food and medical supplies for an international relief convoy to Gaza this Saturday January 26:

Gaza has other problems:

Clean the Water, Turn on the Lights,
Stop the War on Human Rights.

The demonstrators view the Israeli blockade in response to Hamas rockets as:

Collective Punishment

They wanted to speak with the Israeli Consul and ask him to let the convoy through:

But they were turned away:

There were some goyim¹ and the Boston Coalition for Palestinian Rights might include some Palestinians, but mostly the were Jews – Jews for Human Rights in Gaza and Jewish Voices for Peace – and the Israeli Consul would not see them.

Saturday, January 26, Local: Campaign to Break the Siege of Gaza, 12noon-1pm, Harvard Sq., Cambridge (in front of Au Bon Pain) On that day that Israeli peace groups will attempt to enter the Gaza Strip with a convoy of essential supplies and medicines. Gaza no longer has sufficient fuel to keep its power station running. Hospitals and homes are dark and cold, remaining food stocks are being spoiled, the water and sewage infrastructure is breaking down. We American taxpayers — who make this collective punishment possible — must raise our voices. Boston Coalition for Palestinian Rights

¹Reverand Ralph, though sporting an Anglican collar, is Unitarian. Ah, those Unitarians, such an unruly bunch. God love ‘em. And as I’ve mentioned before, I am Pennsylvania Dutch.

Protest at the Israeli Consulate Boston to demand Israel stop the Blockade of Gaza, which is leading to malnutrition, raw sewage in the streets, no electricity ect. In solidarity with the international relief convey.

Similar demonstration July 2006.

Time: NOON to 1pm this Thursday January 24th

Place: Israeli Consulate Boston, located in the Park Plaza Hotel

Directions: Park Plaza hotel is located near the Boston Public Gardens (Arlington St. stop) We’re meeting at noon right across the street from the Park Plaza Hotel, the entrance closest to the Common (Arlington St. stop).

Action: WE are one of hundreds of protest world wide to demand that the international relief convey be let thought on Saturday January 26th SEE (http://zope.gush-shalom.org/index_en.html)

We will attempt to bring food to the Israeli Consulate and demand they end the siege of GAZA. Bring one food item to give…..

We will have leaflets, signs, speaker, music, and a few cartons of medical and food aid to carry in to the consulate – we’re going to try asking the consul to deliver it to Gaza, and to forward to his government our demand that they let the Israeli relief convoy through the Erez checkpoint this Saturday.

—–

Is collective punishment ever justified?

• p1. Full color title with the seal of the Director of National Intelligence - wherein the eagle soars on gold wings while wearing a stars and stripes breast plate.
• p2. Dramatis personae.
• p3. The NIE Process.

These things don’t usually change from one NIE to another.

• p4. Scope Note – They tell us what they’re going to tell us. Unique to the NIE
• p5. Explanation of Estimative Language – boilerplate glossary of the official terms of obfuscation.²
• p6-8.Key Judgments. Hooray! They tell us.
• p9. Key differences … They tell us what they told us.

This NIE raises as many questions as it answers.³ I’d like to go into them with y’all¹, but I have to go do some life support activity. Y’all¹ come back now, hear?

¹ I’m assuming there’s someone besides Tim Gray who reads “the guy by the door.” Wait, someone besides Tim and Joe Wrinn . Actually Joe has person who reads it. I read her blog too.

²They attempt to define a seven category scale of likehood and a three category scale of confidence. The categories necessarily have some width. There is also fuzziness about the boundaries. The serious question – does the fog of the language explaning the fuzziness of the boundaries clarify anything? Maybe it’s a good thing Noam reads these things. Confidence is about the quality of the sources used in the estimate all of which are carefully sequestered in the cone of silence. Hey trust us! Been there! Done that!

³It’s OK. I didn’t take expos at Harvard.

* It would be more in keeping with the spirit of the N.I.E.’s explanation of estimative language to say:

We estimate with a moderate to high level of confidence that we may have made, with a significant probability, a misapprehension of the Iranian situation vis. a vis. nuclear weapons, but it was with a very high probability an honest misapprehension which we can with the highest of confidence assert that it is exceedingly unlikely that we have done it this time.

Work with me people. I’m up against Drudge!