分业经营的终结?

《经济学家》给出了对混业经营的质疑:

“… universal banks appear to offer clear advantages to both shareholders and regulators. Yet some of those advantages are illusory. For regulators, larger, diversified institutions may be more stable than investment banks but they pose an even greater systemic risk. “The universal bank is the regulatory equivalent of the super-senior mortgage-backed bond,” says one analyst. “The risks may look lower but they do not go away.” And deposit funding is cheaper than wholesale funding in part because those deposits are insured. Measures to protect customers may end up allowing banks to take on risks that endanger customers. For shareholders, too, the universal bank may offer false comfort. A model that looks appealing in part because assets are not valued at market prices ought to ring alarm bells. Sprawling conglomerates are just as hard to manage as turbo-charged investment banks. And shareholders at UBS and Citi will derive little comfort from the notion that the model has been proven because their institutions are still standing. If the independent investment banks survive, they will clearly need to change. But they are not the only ones.”

Joke of the day

【出片头后】

【男】:各位观众,晚上好,今天是光绪二十五年十月初六,西历1900年
11月6号,距太后六十大寿还有25天,这次节目的主要内容有:
全国各地官员、百姓继续深入学习、落实太后“圆明园讲话”精神,以“
讲话精神”指导各项工作,取得了显著成绩。
【女】:皇帝陛下在中南海紫光阁接受了新到任的三国公使递交的国书。
【男】:长篇通讯《人民的好公仆-常贝勒》
【女】:总理各国事务衙门发言人就日本海军在东海阻拦我北洋水师正常
航行一事发表谈话。
【男】:全国农村稳定工作会议在京召开。下面请看详细内容。
Continue reading

Economist: Executive compensation in China:False options

Executive compensation in China:False options

From The Economist print edition

A study of share options reveals a vast amount of untouched wealth

HOW executives are rewarded is one of the many mysteries of China’s increasingly powerful companies. Unravelling it is important, not least because it should help to explain corporate China’s transformation Continue reading

毒奶粉撼动社会基本信心

毒奶粉撼动社会基本信心

叶鹏飞

… …

政府事前涉嫌隐匿,事后说法矛盾,加深了民众对政府的怀疑与不满。新华网前天报道说,22家乳制品企业同时生产三聚氰胺毒奶粉,而今天又曝光了诸多奶业集团生产的液奶也含三聚氰胺名单,均为中国著名奶业集团,充分“暴露了奶粉行业的‘潜规则’问题”;但是报道没有指出的是,政府也是潜规则游戏的玩家之一。

国家质检总局在5月发布了《婴幼儿配方乳粉产品质量国家监督抽查质量公告》,宣称“产品实物质量抽样合格率为99.1%”,其中“市场占有率较高的大型生产企业在连续三次的国家监督抽查中,产品实物质量抽样合格率为 100%”,“16种获国家免检产品和8种中国名牌产品”也全部合格。

22家生产毒奶粉的企业,就包括了公告中的“市场占有率较高的大型生产企业”、它们生产的是“国家免检产品”、“中国名牌产品”。网友纷纷指出,这意味着是国家质检总局涉嫌隐匿真相和渎职无能。

总局局长李长江在前天表示,以前没有检测到奶粉里含三聚氰胺,因为这些物质不允许被添加到食品中,所以没有对奶粉进行三聚氰胺含量检测。

但是新华网同日引述“质检总局认监委、标准委及总局有关司局负责人”说,在去年爆发中国出口美国宠物食品发现三聚氰胺丑闻后,总局“立即部署了有关食品质量的专项抽查,抽查包括奶粉、液态奶、幼儿米粉”等。

总局局长说没有检测三聚氰胺,总局官员同一天说有检测,自相矛盾的结果不但进一步打击民众信心,也让政府诚信扫地。

政府双重标准 ,国人不值外人

另一个激发民众愤慨是政府的双重标准。官方宣布,出口以及供应北京奥运和残奥的乳制品都没有发现三聚氰胺——说明官方完全知道三聚氰胺是不充许添加到奶粉中,也有能力确保奶粉中不含三聚氰胺——但国内已经造成超过6000 个婴儿肾结石,其中150多个婴儿病危,四个婴儿死亡,受害婴儿人数估计还会增加。有网友评论说:“把三聚氰胺留给自己,把安全送给客人。” 更有网友说:“国人不值钱,外人不好惹,所以蒙骗国人无所谓”。

三聚氰胺奶粉不但让民众对国产食品安全的信心溃堤,恐怕也淹没了他们对政府执政的能力、诚信,乃至合法性的认同。

政府提出“以人为本”统治理念,并在反击国际对中国压制人权的指控时,强调中国的基本国情决定了“必须把公民的生存权、发展权作为首要人权”,反对西方以“自由”为第一人权的要求。

按照中国政府自己设定的标准,威胁婴儿健康生命的三聚氰胺奶粉,既违背了对“人”的基本尊重,更残害下一代公民的生存,在根本上完全颠覆了中国政府的统治合法性。有网友愤慨地说:“有这样的政府是我们的国耻。”

随着残酷的事实陆续被揭开,亡羊补牢的时机点正不断流失,当局对于现有体制小修小补的改革,已经被证明赶不上体制弊端造成伤害所带来的严峻形势。民众或许能容忍一定程度的腐败和无能,但是当体制一再造成大规模人命伤亡,甚至危及下一代生存的时候,任何冠冕堂皇的辩解不但无用,甚至将产生反效果。

如何就毒奶粉丑闻拿出霹雳手段挽回民众信心,重整统治合法性,将让后奥运时期忙于应对经济难题的中国政府百上加斤。

“三聚氰胺”的毒性问题

再谈谈“三聚氰胺”的毒性问题

From: http://hmsjyswys2008.blog.163.com/blog/static/287190662008818101634916/

By: 王衡

自从三鹿奶粉的“东窗事发”以后,国家质量检测总局对全国109家奶粉生产企业的69批次的奶粉进行了专项检测,结果有22家的奶粉样品中,检测到不同含量的三聚氰胺,每公斤奶粉中含三聚氰胺从0.08mg——619mg,最高的是三鹿集团生产的三鹿牌奶粉,每公斤含三聚氰胺2563mg,看来,掌握这种参毒“技术”的人不在少数。虽然一些批发化学药品的小贩我知道,这种工业药品是不可以食用的,吃多了会有问题,吃少了问题可能不大,所以,他们明知道奶贩往原料奶中加,却是还是卖给了这些人,难道这个东西吃少了就没有问题了吗?

一、毒性分子的数目

化学研究的结果表明: 1“克分子”的任何物质,它所含的分子个数是:6.231023个,也就是说:三聚氰胺的分子量是:126.12,那么,在126.12的三聚氰胺药品中,含有的分子数目就是6.231023个,显然,126.12mg的三聚氰胺的分子数目是6.231020个,在上述检测的奶粉中,每公斤奶粉中三聚氰胺的含量都在毫克量以上,也就是说,这些有毒的奶粉中,三聚氰胺的分子个数都在6.231018个以上,按这个浓度计算,每克奶粉中所含的分子数目是6.231015个,如果婴幼儿每次食用5克奶粉,一次吃下的毒性分子数目在3.1151016个,这是多少呢?就是3.115亿亿个毒性分子,对于正在长身体和大脑发育的婴幼儿来讲,其危害性是很严重的!许多的婴幼儿因为吃了这个含毒素的奶粉,出现肾功能衰竭,就是因为“三聚氰胺”能够破坏婴幼儿体内的蛋白质结构造成的必然结果!

二、化学理论解释不了分子的毒性

在二十世纪中,化学理论是最糟糕的一个理论!因为它从原始理论上就解释不了分子的毒性,学习化学的人有一个不成文的惯例,就是学习化学不要问为什么?因为,从事化学教学的教授和专家,他们也搞不清楚为什么?

记得十多年前,国内有一个化工厂的原料氯泄露,淡黄色的气体飘散在空气中,造成几百人中毒(这就是日本侵华时使用的毒气),其中有学生一百多人。当时,有一个专家小组认为,这属于“漂流性”毒气中毒事件,中毒者在24小时以后,就可以恢复出院,然而,中毒者住进医院,一住就是半年到一年,有些患者还留下严重的后遗症!

按照现行的化学理论,氯气进入水中,能够生成盐酸和次氯酸,这些都属于强电解质,盐酸可以电离成Cl-H+,次氯酸可以电离成ClO-H+,它们在人体内都可以靠人体的代谢而排掉,结果证明,这个理论是错误的!

三、氯化氢的分子毒性

氯化氢是由一个氯原子和一个氢原子组成的化合物,可以看作是氯原子吸引氢电子而形成的分子,氯化氢的水溶液称为盐酸,分子式是HCl,分子量是:36.4609

我们首先分析氯原子的原子结构,氯原子在化学元素周期表中是第17号元素,电子分三层排布,第一层有一个“双电子轨道”,第二层有4个“双电子轨道”的定轴交叉,第三层有7个电子,能够形成三个双电子轨道和一个单电子轨道,属于4个电子轨道的平面沿一条轴线交叉,原子结构如图(11c)实物结构如图(a)所示。

根据《双电子轨道理论》第一个原理:核力线定量外射原理,原子核有几个质子,它就能够向外发射几个单位的正电性电力线,根据该理论第二原理:内层电子等量屏蔽原理,因此,在氯原子的外层球面上,对外显示7个单位的正电性强度,根据该理论第三原理:外层电子具有方位性定量屏蔽作用,屏蔽方位为450,每个电子能够屏蔽4个单位的正电性,因此,氯原子在00450900″双电子轨道”方位上,存在1个单位的负电性(属于屏蔽过量,计算:E = ne – 4ne =7e – 4e2 = – 1e),而在1350″单电子轨道”方位上,存在3个单位的正电性(属于屏蔽不足,计算:E = ne – 4ne =7e – 4e = 3e),因此,氯原子能够吸引氢原子的电子,形成绕氯和氢两个原子旋转的“双电子轨道”,(这就是过去化学理论中的“共用电子对”),也就是说,它们形成了分子轨道,也可以说形成了第一种形态的化学键,称为轨道键(单轨道键),轨道键是一种普遍存在的强化学键,形成的分子称为氯化氢,氯化氢的分子结构如图(11b)所示。

在氯化氢的分子结构中,氯原子存在三个原子轨道,占00450900三个方位,而分子轨道占1350方位,氢原子在含氢分子轨道中处于半裸露状态,一旦进入生命体,在有机体的蠕动下,能够从分子轨道的侧面滑出来,从而带走电子,此时,氯原子在1350方位上(三个单位的正电性)能够吸引蛋白质分子中的氢电子而形成新的氯化氢分子,因此,氯化氢分子在生命体中,就像一个“带钩的小球”,能够不断破坏蛋白质的分子结构,所以,氯化氢是有毒性的结构体。

图(11cd)是它们的结构式,与传统的表示方法不相同,这里用的是一个称为“透视正交坐标系”,是数学中的正交坐标系沿Z轴透视而形成的,用它表示原子结构就像是用刀子切西瓜,沿X轴、Y轴以及它们的夹角平分线切4刀,分别占4个方位,每个刀口的断面(横截面)是一个圆,原子核位于中心,是点电场的场源,其外围是存在有正电性的电力线,外围某点处的电场强度符合点电场特点,原子的化学性质决定于其外围的电场强度,我们利用这个工具,就可以把常规力学原理应用到化学问题上来,这是一个伟大的突破。

四、次氯酸的分子毒性

氯气分子也属于单轨道捆绑键,分子结构如图(1_2a)所示,在氯气分子结构中,两个氯原子各存在三个方位的原子轨道,对外显示1个单位的负电性(属于屏蔽过量,计算:E = ne – 4ne =7e – 4e2 = – 1e),当氯气进入水中,它的原子轨道方位上能够与水分子中的氢原子形成吸引式化学键(第二种形态的化学键)。在温度的激发下,转化为轨道键,转变为氯化氢和次氯酸分子,氯化氢的分子毒性在上面已经讨论过,下面我们讨论次氯酸的分子结构。

次氯酸是一个平面直角式的结构体,在次氯酸的分子结构中,氯原子与氧原子在900方位上形成一个“双电子轨道”,在其它三个方位上是原子轨道,氧原子的00方位上与氢原子形成一个含氢分子轨道,氢原子在分子轨道中处于半裸露状态,在生命体中能够从分子轨道的侧面滑出来,此时,这个方位对外显示2个单位的正电性,能够吸引蛋白质分子中的电子而形成新的轨道键,起到“拔氢”作用,也能够与蛋白质分子结合而造成蛋白质分子的形变,因此,它也是有毒性的结构体。可见,氯气一旦被人体吸入,能够造成人体器官的损害,尤其是首先损害的是呼吸道,属于剧毒性气体。

五、三聚氰胺的分子毒性

三聚氰胺是一个平面杂环结构体,所谓杂环是因为组成环的是3个氮原子和3个 碳原子,不是同一种原子,它的轨道结构与“苯环”相同,是单键和双键间位组成,在《双电子轨道》理论中,单键称为“单轨道键”,是两个原子之间形成了一个 “双电子轨道”,它像圈式弹簧一样,将两个原子“捆绑”,双键称为“双轨道键”,是两个原子之间形成了两个“双电子轨道”,两个“双电子轨道”的平面垂 直,所以,苯环的轨道结构就一目了然了,三聚氰胺中心部分的轨道结构如图(1—3)所示。

图(b)是杂环上以“单轨道键”连接的“氨基”,实体结构如图(c)所示,氢原子在含氢轨道中处于“半裸露”状态,在生命体中非常容易被有机体的“蠕动”作用而从分子轨道中“滑脱”出来而带走自己的电子,因此,在这个方位上存在1个单位的正电性,吸引蛋白质分子中的氢电子而形成新的轨道键,从而起的作用是“拔氢原”,因为在蛋白质分子结构中,几乎所有的原子都是4轨道平面的“定轴交叉”,一旦氢原子被拔掉,就缺少了一个片面的支撑,其它三个平面就会转动而发生变形,所以,蛋白质就遭到了破坏。三聚氰胺污染的奶粉之所以造成婴幼儿的肾衰竭,就是这个“拔氢”造成的结果。

00八年九月十九日

Sanlu on News

“谁看着孩子不可怜?太缺德了!”——一位妈妈,在孩子哭声里

NZ officials ‘blew whistle’ on milk scare

NZ officials ‘blew whistle’ on milk scare
Home » News » National
Mon, 15 Sep 2008
News: National

New Zealand officials “blew the whistle” on the sale of contaminated milk linked to the death of at least one baby in China, Prime Minister Helen Clark says.

The contaminated milk powder was sold by New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra’s Chinese joint venture partner, Sanlu — raising fears the scandal could taint New Zealand’s reputation in the massive market.

Fonterra yesterday revealed it had been aware of the contamination since mid-August, despite a full public recall only being initiated last week.

But Miss Clark today said Fonterra had pushed for a full recall at the earliest possible opportunity but had been blocked by Chinese local government officials.

“They have been trying for weeks to get official recall and the local authorities in China would not do it,” she said on TVNZ’s Breakfast programme.

Miss Clark said the first she knew about the issue was on September 5. Three days later she convened a meeting of senior ministers at which she ordered officials to leapfrog the local officials and immediately inform their superiors in Beijing.

“As you can imagine when New Zealand Government blew the whistle in Beijing a very heavy hand then descended on the local authorities,” she said.

“At a local level…I think the first inclination was to try and put a towel over it and deal with it without an official recall. That is never what we would do in New Zealand.”

Miss Clark said she hoped the scandal would not affect Fonterra’s reputation, but it showed to the company it could not be “naive” in its foreign operations and had to insist on its own high standards.

“I think Fonterra, from the advice I have had, has behaved responsibly at all times, but it has been dealing in a political system at a local level in China where the inclination is to cover things up, but I have to say once we blew the whistle in Beijing they moved very fast.”

The milkpowder poisoned with melamine, an industrial chemical which can boost the apparent protein content in some standard tests on food, is reported to have killed one baby and made another 432 sick with kidney damage.

Trade Minister Phil Goff last night told NZPA other major dairy companies, such as Nestle, had been caught up in similar scandals in the past and it was possible several other companies had also supplied the contaminated milkpowder.

Fonterra has a 43 percent stake in Shijiazhuang Sanlu Group Co Ltd, which ordered a product recall on September 11.  The Chinese Government has since ordered it to stop production.

A Fonterra spokesman yesterday said company representatives in China were seeking a meeting with the Chinese government to discuss the issue.

“We will be assisting where we can with the investigation,” he said.

But because an investigation was under way, “and the sensitivities around it”, the company declined further comment.

Vice Governor Yang Chongyong of Hebei province, where Sanlu Group is located, said investigators wanted to know whether information on the contamination was suppressed.

“We will look into whether government at any level was negligent or whether any officials tried to withhold information,” Yang said.

“If we find anyone did this, they will be held accountable.” China’s health minister blamed the Fonterra joint venture for delays in warning the public about the contaminated milkpowder, the Associated Press news agency reported.

Government officials said 19 people had been detained and 78 were being questioned about how the banned chemical was added to the milk.

Officials complained they were not alerted until September 9, even though Sanlu got complaints as early as March and its tests found melamine in the milk in August.