Home Is Where The Heart Dwells

China’s Hot Capital Inflows Reversing: Whither the Economy?

美国经济下滑和美元贬值，一般被经济学家认为将会导致中国出口下降和通货膨胀加剧。但近来的世界原油、钢材等初级产品价格的下跌却无疑会改变上述预期：初级产品价格的下降(见desjardins研究报告)，将会有利于中国加工业，带来中国出口增加的持续，进而减少通货膨胀。冒昧地说：短期内尽管中国经济会受累全球金融危机，长期来看它却会给中国发展带来持续的动力。

“The U.S. financial crisis, through lower U.S. demand and a weakened dollar, will eventually force the rest of the world to go through painful adjustments.”

KOBAYASHI Keiichiro from RIETI (Japan)

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In the last century US has for several times inflated itself out of financial crisis. Will the same strategy work this time?

The unexpected commodity price drop seems to be a critical factor among many others that indicate the impossibility. The price drop may temporarily make it easier for FED to deal with the immediate problems, but in the long run it would substantially weaken the US dollar. The weakened dollar in turn will prevent US from using the same inflation strategy to deal with the crisis.

Read news on Oil Price Drop Leads PPI Decline.

[This article was written 4 years ago. I don't agree with the author, but it is an interesting piece. ]

CHINA’S GREAT DEPRESSION

中文见：

中国经济大萧条

North Philly, May 4, 2001. Officer Sean Devlin, Narcotics Strike Force, was working the morning shift. Undercover surveillance. The neighborhood? Tough as a threedollar steak. Devlin knew. Five years on the beat, nine months with the Strike Force. He’d made fifteen, twenty drug busts in the neighborhood.
Devlin spotted him: a lone man on the corner. Another approached. Quick exchange of words. Cash handed over; small objects handed back. Each man then quickly on his own way. Devlin knew the guy wasn’t buying bus tokens. He radioed a description and Officer Stein picked up thebuyer. Sure enough: three bags of crack in the guy’s pocket. Head downtown and book him. Just another day at the office.

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引自《温家宝：只有政改才能根除腐败 政府没有特权》（星岛环球网）

温家宝称，推进民主政治最重要是三个方面内容：

第一是逐步完善民主权益，保障和扩大人民的选举权——“这是最重要的，因为我们的权力一切都来自人民，一切都为了人民。我们做的好坏，也以人民的评价为标准”。

其次是司法公正：法律面前人人平等，不管甚么人触及法律，都要依法处理。

第三就是民主监督：包括人民的监督，人民代表大会的监督，各民主党派的监督，以及新闻传媒的监督。温家宝说，这样才能使各级政权机构置于人民监 督之下，使政府决策更加民主、科学，使每一位领导人都能更加严格的依法办事，严格的要求自己，遵守法律和宪法。“我觉得这是从根本解决问题的关键”。

[Caingjing Magazine reported on OCT 06 that the government of Loufan County (Shanxi) misled the central government and the media by reporting a 11 worker death toll instead of 44--which would have fallen into the "most severe industrial injury case" category by legal standard. The Chinese central government is now looking into the fraud. The fraudulent report form Loufan government once again reveals China's problematic governance today.]

娄烦矿难升级 国务院彻查瞒报

 Sina.com censored and closed several blogs without noticing the bloggers. Xiao Han thought it’s a pity that an internet company aided and abeted the censorship.]

忧思录之六：封杀博客及其他 / 萧瀚

让教授磕头的程序

张鸣

成为衙门的大学，有两项例行公事，一是糟蹋学生，二是玩弄教授。如果有人认为自己所在的学校还不是衙门，那么请不要对号入座，我说的，就是那些已经变成衙 门的大学。糟蹋学生，是把学生往没用的方向教，通过刻版的教学、虚拟的实习，再加上平时的管、卡、压、要（钱），使大学教育空洞化，有害化，四年、六年甚 至十年学下来，学不到东西不说，品性还差了。学生为了方便就业，往往不得不另花钱参加各种班，考各种证。玩弄教授，大都遵循古训，有软和硬的两手，一如当 年袁大总统的法宝，一手拿大刀，一手拿大头（光洋）听话给大头，不听话请吃刀。

这么年来，大学教授被这胡萝卜大棒交替乱轮的权术操作，已经弄得三魂丢了两魂半，温顺如古典处女了，每逢校长到场，不仅鞠躬如仪，而且言必称校长云云，视 校长书记的指示如同圣旨一般。显然，领导的威仪，尊贵是永远无止境的，视教授为奴才的领导们，总是嫌下属对他们尊敬不够，这不，教育行政部门想出来让教授 评级的好办法，好端端地，把个大学里面的教师，分成十三级，而教授则分为四级。据说，评级的标准，主要依据任职教授的资历，九年以下做四级，九年可以升三 级，十二年可以升二级等等。以我所在的学校而论，这个据说的标准是真实的，因为好些既没什么成果，也没什么学历的人，到了点，都升级成功。 (more…)