艾未未：我只是不愿意再被嘲笑罢了
南方人物周刊记者：杨潇
截至3月29日，在艾未未博客上公布出来的“有名有姓”的遇难学生总数是3342人，他希望在一周年到来之前让这个民间发布的名单尽量完整，“我们可以回避这些血和肉，这些声音，这些气味吗？”
离“5·12”周年纪念日还有60天的时候，艺术家艾未未在自己的博客上公布了68份名单，这里面有1579名地震遇难学生的姓名、年龄、学校、班级。 Continue reading
Monthly Archives: April 2009
Taxi Driver Strikes in China
[ News on taxi driver strikes in China. ]
山西朔州出租车罢运续:罢运司机遭打被拘留
2008-12-16 14:16:21 来源: 四川在线(成都)
核心提示：山西省朔州市部分出租车司机11月4日聚集在市政府门口罢运。次日，6家出租车公司的经理到公安局开会时，被拘留10天。另有3名司机被拘留15天。
四川在线12月16日报道 山西省朔州市部分出租车司机因多次反映经营困难未得到重视罢运，当地政府采用粗暴方式对待民生诉求引起极大争议。 Continue reading
Risk versus Uncertainty: Frank Knight’s “Brute” Facts of Economic Life
Risk versus Uncertainty: Frank Knight’s “Brute” Facts of Economic Life
Published on: Jun 07, 2006
Dr. William H. Janeway, Vice Chairman, Warburg Pincus, received his doctorate in economics from Cambridge University where he was a Marshall Scholar. He was Valedictorian of the Class of 1965 at Princeton University. Prior to joining Warburg Pincus in 1988, where he was responsible for building the Information Technology practice, he was Executive Vice President and Director at Eberstadt Fleming. Dr. Janeway is a director of BEA Systems, Manugistics, Scansoft and UGS. He is also a member of the board of directors of the Social Science Research Council and a member of the board of Trustees of Cambridge in America, University of Cambridge. He is a Founder Member of the Board of Managers of the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF).
“…there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”—Donald Rumsfeld
“Ah, what a dusty answer gets the soul, When hot for certainties in this our life”—George Meredith
Donald Rumsfeld’s characteristically idiosyncratic gloss on George Meredith’s existential meditation attracted derision across many constituencies. But Rumsfeld summarized a way of structuring our understanding of the world that has profound and immediate relevance. Most particularly, over the past generation, the application of increasingly powerful and sophisticated computerized statistical analysis has interacted with the work of theoreticians of finance to transform the capital markets in the U.S. and around the world. Our mastery of “known unknowns”—i.e., well-defined probabilities—has increased enormously, transformationally. The measurement and management of “risk” has become a major concern of all financial institutions and their regulators, especially since the collapse of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1998. At the same time, proposals to privatize Social Security and, more generally, to rely on “risk-managed” financial markets for economic security find their theoretical rationalization in the teachings of “modern” finance. And yet, as Rumsfeld and Meredith assert in their very different ways, there is another category of the world’s possible outcomes that lies beyond the reach of modern, market-based, risk management techniques.
More than eighty years ago, Frank Knight set out to parse the difference between risk and uncertainty and the significance of that difference. In Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Knight distinguished between three different types of probability, which he termed: “a priori probability”; “statistical probability” and “estimates”. The first type “is on the same logical plane as the propositions of mathematics”; the canonical example is the odds of rolling any number on a die. “Statistical probability” depends upon the “empirical evaluation of the frequency of association between predicates” and on “the empirical classification of instances”. When “there is no valid basis of any kind for classifying instances”, only “estimates” can be made.1 In contemporary Bayesian parlance, in the first case, the probability distribution of the prior and all its moments are known definitionally; in the second case they are specified by statistical analysis of well-defined empirical data; in the third case such data as exists do not lend themselves to statistical analysis. Continue reading
Expert from the Law School of Beijing University Apologized for His Statement that All Chinese Petitioners Have Mental Illness and Should Be Locked in Asylum
[Professor Sun Dongdong from the Law School of Beijing University (or Peking University) told the media that "99% of the petitioners--if not 100%--have mental illness." Commentators say the statement will justify some governments' illegal usage of asylum to suppress petitions from Chinese citizens.
Illgal usage of asylum to supress petitions is rampant in China. According to a news report from SINA.com, at least 18 people are believed to have been sent to such hospitals in Xintai city in Shandong province, with some being given debilitating drugs. Another news report shows that Xintai city government openly instruct its agencies (of course this is only "to share with other agencies the experience" ) to use asylum as one of the three major ways to deal with petitioners. And obviously it has been followed by agencies from Xintai City.
Public intellectual Yan Lieshan analyzed Professor Sun's statement, and found there was only consistant logic in his reasoning, which was simply "the government is always right, and there's no need to change the status quo(强势一方总是有理的，现行制度没有什么要修正的)."
On April 6th Professor Sun Dongdong issued an public apology for his statement through a web media 21cn.com.]
摘自孟雪罡：《专家与访民到底谁是精神病》。
日前，国家卫生部专家委员、北京大学司法鉴定室主任孙东东称：“对那些老上访专业户，我负责任地说，不说100%，至少99%以上精神有问题，都是偏执型精神障碍。”(4月5日《都市快报》)。
上访人员“患”精神病的事例，媒体时有报道。比如山东新泰农民孙法武就曾因赴京上访被镇政府送进精神病院20余日。采取非凡手段把多次上访的公民送进精神病院，是某些做贼心虚的地方官员的惯用手段。如今，司法精神病学专家孙东东为这种非法行为提供了充足的理论依据，相信今后某些地方把上访者送进精神病院会更加理直气壮、有恃无恐了。
来自新泰市信访局网站的消息，新泰今年狠抓信访工作。今年3月4日，新泰的信访工作会议上，市委书记辛显明提出，围绕全国“两会”召开和奥运会，切实做到“五个严禁”，其中“严禁发生赴省进京丢丑滋事事件”被列为第一条。
同样来自新泰信访局网站的一篇“经验交流”文章写道：针对个别信访人信“访”不信“法”、信“闹”不信“理”的心态，牢固树立依法打击的意识，做到“公安机关依法打击一批、精神司法鉴定治疗一批，集中办班培训‘管’掉一批”，营造“依法上访受保护、违法上访遭打击”的导向和浓厚氛围……对精神偏执的信访人也进行人文关怀，协助其进行司法鉴定，经鉴定精神异常的送医院治疗。”
Quote of the day
文学艺术，以前是无产阶级的、为政治服务的工具，没有人性哪有诗歌文学？现在这个也不正常。中国这部现代文学史啊，得重新写。对中国作家作真正全面的调查、遴选，重新评判、识别，哪些是真正的作品，哪些不是，这个是需要的。
–牛汉
见牛汉：《现代文学史要重写》 2009-04-05 来源: 南方人物周刊(广州)
Hayek and Market Socialism: Science, Ideology, and Public Policy
from http://mises.org/story/1661
Mises Daily by Peter J. Boettke
The Hayek Memorial Lecture, London School of Economics, presented in cooperation with the Mises Institute, October 19, 2004. Also available in pdf.
Introduction
It is a great honor for me to have this opportunity to speak at this great institution of economic education and research,[1] and on this occasion to honor F.A. Hayek—a scholar who I admire greatly as a man of keen intellect and courage. Hayek’s scholarly career spanned from the 1920s to the 1980s, and he had appointments at several universities, but the LSE was the school where he taught at for the longest period, and where his own ideas took shape. I want to thank the staff at LSE for coordinating my visit, Professor Tim Besley for being a gracious and welcoming host, and Mr. Toby Baxendale for his respect for the ideas of the LSE tradition ofCannan, Robbins, Plant, Hayek, Coase and P.T. Bauer, and for his vision of how these ideas can be revitalized and advanced at this great institution of higher learning to both improve our understanding and realize a freer and more economically prosperous state of affairs in Britain and abroad.
I have chosen as my topic “Hayek and Market Socialism,” and I have done so for a variety of reasons:
- It is in this debate that Hayek’s research program in philosophy, politics, and economics emerged;
- Hayek’s main contributions to this controversy were written while he was here at the LSE;
- The topic is not an example of ‘beating a dead horse’ because the subtlety of Hayek’s argument is not fully appreciated and its relevance to contemporary debates in public policy is not generally recognized.
In the interest of being completely frank, I should add that I also recently had occasion to revisit this episode in Hayek’s career for a series of professional publication opportunities.[2]
The basic argument of my talk will proceed as follows:
-
Hayek’s critique of socialism was grounded in his scientific understanding of economics.
-
Hayek’s ideological commitment to liberalism was a consequence of his science, and not the other way around.
-
Hayek’s position in this debate had direct policy relevance during his life, and it still has lasting relevance today for public policy. We must resist the general consensus that appreciates Hayek as an ideological icon, rather than as the source for a series of scientific propositions. It is my contention that if Hayek’s scientific contribution were understood, then economics as a discipline would be transformed in both its theoretical and empirical orientation. Continue reading
章诒和: 卧底
章诒和: 卧底
谁能相信，自父亲戴上右派帽子以后，我家里就有了个卧底。他就是翻译家、出版家冯亦代，人称“好人冯二哥”。
我觉得自己经历了许多事，心已变硬，情也冷去。不想“卧底”的事如滔天巨浪，将我击倒在地。一连数日，泪流不止，大汗不止。文史专家、学者朱正先生告诉我：情况确凿，证据就是冯亦代在生前以极大勇气出版的《悔余日录》（河南人民，2000；下引本书只注日期和页码）。读后，全身瘫软，一张报纸都举它不起。因为他的这个“角色”，与章家两代人交往的深情厚谊以及那笑脸后面的一片慈祥，在我是无论如何也联系不上。可证据就摆在那里 ，你不信也得信，你无法接受也要接受。难道伤天害理之灾，裂骨锥心之痛，就是我的命运?
1958：进了章家大门
冯亦代是母亲（李健生）在民盟北京市委一起共事的朋友，与父亲并无往来。反右刚结束，大概是1958年的春季，在民盟市委的一次学习会上，母亲见他一个人呆在旮旯儿，无人理睬，很可怜。散会后，二人一前一后走出西四羊肉胡同。母亲快步靠近他，问：“亦代，你好吗？”
冯亦代说：“李大姐，我能好到哪里去呢？” Continue reading
Treasury’s Rules of the Road for Regulatory Reform
Davis Polk & Wardwell‘s recent memorandum, entitled “Treasury’s Rules of the Road for Regulatory Reform,” describes Treasury’s framework for regulatory reform, focusing on the comparatively more detailed proposals for addressing systemic risk, and sets forth some of the issues the government and the private sector may consider as the details are hammered out.
http://www.dpw.com/1485409/clientmemos/2…
德国宪法法院：不知名的小法官影响全球
德国宪法法院：不知名的小法官影响全球
[2009.3.26] Judgment days 审判的日子
Germany’s Constitutional Court
德国宪法法院
Judgment days
审判的日子
Mar 26th 2009 | KARLSRUHE
From The Economist print edition
The little-known judges on Germany’s Constitutional Court exert real influence, not only at home but also abroad
德国宪法法院的那些不知名的法官们发挥了实实在在的影响，不但在国内，而且在国外也一样！
Illustration by Peter Schrank
WHEN the principality of Baden merged with two others to form Baden-Württemberg in 1951, its former capital, Karlsruhe, was given a consolation prize: the Constitutional Court of the new federal republic. Modestly housed in squat blocks, the court is far from the capital, Berlin. Yet the federal government (and the states) are forever grappling with its edicts. Any toughening of police powers to deal with terrorism seems to provoke objections in Karlsruhe. So do lesser matters, such as whether commuters can deduct transport costs from taxes or whether bars can let smokers light up. “The Constitutional Court is often called the third chamber of the legislature,” notes Dieter Grimm, a former judge. “There is something in it.”
当1951年巴登和其它两州合并成巴登-符腾堡州时，巴登原来的省会卡尔斯鲁厄[1]拿了一个安慰奖：新的联邦宪法法院就坐落于此。宪法法院建在一堆矮胖 的石头里，离德国的首都十分遥远。而联邦政府（以及各州）永远都在法令中摸索。任何对反恐警察权力的增加似乎都会招致宪法法院的反对。一些轻度的事情也有 关系：比如，公交一族是否可以从税收中享受交通费的折扣，或者酒吧是否可以允许烟民吸烟。一位前法官Dieter Grimm说，“宪法法院常被称作立法机构的第三极，不可小觑。” Continue reading
Quote of the day: on enforcing law in China
我们的城管可以把街头小贩追得无处藏身；我们的计生部门，可以扒超生户的房，牵他们家的牛，让他们倾家荡产；在强制拆迁和征地中，我们的警察和武警更是可 以拿盾牌和警棍对付整个村庄或者社区的反抗；更不要说在抓嫖，抓赌这些有利可图的行动中，我们的警察总是无比神勇，而当要解救被拐卖的儿童和妇女的时候， 我们的执法机关常常就无能为力了，他们就成为弱势群体了。
from: “买人”该当何罪？ by 郭宇宽