Home Is Where The Heart Dwells

September 29, 2008

“说没有看到危机到来的人,实际上根本没睁眼在看。”

Filed under: comments on news, in Chinese, 中文 — Rui Guo @ 4:35 pm

纽约时报和华尔街日报今天同时刊登一篇文章 Daring to Say Loans Made No Sense, 讲的是Alex Blumberg在2006年–金融危机还没有影子的时候——就制作专题节目对美国房贷问题提出尖锐质问。当然,并没有人理睬他的质问。

(节目可在如下地址下载:thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1242

Alex Blumberg不明白,为什么那些根本没有可能还贷款的人会得到房屋贷款。“无需收入、无需资产,不需要任何证明,只需要你有信用记录,加上你的脉搏还在跳动就可以了。”(“No income, no asset. You don’t have to state anything. Just have a credit score and a pulse.” )这就是当时Alex Blumberg所看到的房贷市场。甚至,连后一个条件也是可以不要的,Alex Blumberg发现俄亥俄州有23个死人的贷款也给批准了。

这些从一开始就很荒唐的贷款,是今天所有金融危机的根源,没有什么高深莫测的的原因。媒体也报道了,很多人也读到了,只是他们视而不见而已。

“说没有看到危机到来的人,实际上根本没睁眼在看。”

(If no one saw this coming, they were not looking. )

August 2, 2008

Professor Zhu Suli Accuses Rule of Law as Western Conspiracy

Filed under: China, In English, comments on news, in Chinese — Rui Guo @ 10:38 am

Professor Zhu Suli, Dean of Peking University Law School, delivered a lecture on the socialist legal system for Chinese National Meeting of Zhengfa System (including judges, prosecutors, policemen and the Party secretries in charge of legal affairs) on June 17th(2008), stressing that China should stick to the Party’s ruling and denouncing the Western rule of law by labeling it as “capitalist idea” and “conspiracy of the enemy states from the West”. Zhu said, “[w]e must also note that right now some international forces do not want to see China’s getting stronger and rising up. They, however, even want to see China’s split. They want to use the western rule of law and democracy concept to reform China’s political regime. They stress the separation of power or promote special attention to judicial independence to weaken the Party’s rule, or even exclude the Party’s rule. These are the core efforts to destruct Chinese socialist construction and the construction of Chinese rule of law by those international forces. We have to pay enough attention to this. “ (” 还必须注意,在当下,至少有些国际势力并不希望中国强大和崛起,甚至希望中国分裂,想用西方的法治民主观来改革中国的政治法律结构。通过强调三权分立或片 面强调司法独立来弱化党的领导,甚至排斥党的领导,其实是某些国际政治势力破坏中国社会主义建设和破坏中国法治建设的核心内容之一。对这一点,必须要有充 分的警惕。”)
Here is the full text: (more…)

July 30, 2008

法学院的奥巴马教授

Filed under: comments on news, 中文 — Rui Guo @ 1:29 pm

Obama纽约时报文章The Long Run–Teaching Law, Testing Ideas, Obama Stood Apart介绍了奥巴马的法学院生涯:他在芝加哥法学院教书十二载和在哈佛法学院三年学习。文章强调奥巴马深知左右派分歧,并很早就致力于探索解决途径。

June 16, 2008

DANIEL ROSEN: 人民币为中国消费者而“升”(华尔街日报)

Filed under: China, Comments, comments on news, 中文 — Rui Guo @ 10:55 pm

[谁是人民币升值的主要推动者?谁是反对者?如DANIEL ROSEN所言,国有企业/重工业企业/原料进口企业支持升值,而沿海轻工业/出口企业的最大利益是人民币币值保持不变。

但是,DANIEL ROSEN说人民币升值让中国消费者受惠,未免让人怀疑他不够坦诚----人民币升值并不一定给普通消费者带来直接好处,却可能引发沿海出口导向型企业的失业浪潮,直接让这些企业的工人收入减少、消费水平降低,并进一步导致其产业链的上游企业受损;在人民币升值的情况下,国有企业/重工业企业/原料进口企业会得到巨额收益,但这些收益不一定能转移到普通消费者身上,因为这些企业多半不会降低原材料价格。

国有企业/重工业企业/原料进口企业的亏损有国家补贴,目前并无大的问题。(例如中石油、中石化等,绝无亏损之虞。)得到补贴之后,这些企业出产的原材料产品价格低廉,会给下游中国企业带来出口优势,这些优势则会给中国消费者带来实实在在的利益。在这个意义上,人民币倒是应该为中国消费者而“不升”。]

人民币为中国消费者而“升”

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DANIEL ROSEN

下 中美官员都在为新一轮中美战略经济对话(Strategic Economic Dialogue)做着准备,像过去一样,人民币汇率升值仍将是双方会谈中的一个重要议题。在一些具有历史意义的偶然性因素之中,美国财政部长鲍尔森 (Hank Paulson)在人民币升值问题上可能会无意间得到一个隐形推手的帮助,那就是以美元计价的原材料成本的涨价风潮,而原材料对于中国的经济发展来说至关 重要。
(more…)

June 11, 2008

Booming Chinese Economy

Filed under: In English, comments on news, news — Rui Guo @ 11:44 pm

[The following article is from Economist, which describes the background of a takeover of a Hong Kong bank by a Chinese bank. It gives readers hints of the energy that the booming Chinese economy contains.]

Taking Wing

Jun 5th 2008 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
The first big takeover by a mainland bank outside of China

IT CAME down, in the end, to a fight between an aggressive Australian bank with a new boss who has China in his sights, and keen Chinese banks wanting a quick route to the outside world. The result reflected the new financial pecking order: China won.
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April 18, 2008

地产公司债券在国外市场受青睐

Filed under: China, Chinese Corporations, comments on news, in Chinese, 中文 — Rui Guo @ 11:05 am

前面评论过地产公司对国际市场融资途径并为断绝,例子是刚刚上市的华程。这里又增加一个新例证,地产公司还可向国际市场发行债券。这些债券尽管评级(标准普尔)不高,凭着高额回报率,还是吸引了众多投资者。

见:Chinese bond yields attracting investors 

April 9, 2008

Modernizing Chinese villages or a robbery?

Filed under: China, Comments, In English, comments on news — Rui Guo @ 3:50 pm

In the name of “socialist new village” movement, China’s provinces, such as Jiangsu, have been confiscating peasants’ houses and lands without giving them reasonable compensation since 2006. In these provinces, peasants were mandated to move to the concentrated residence, assigned a unit of the government-built apartment building, and given a pathetic amount of monthly stipend in exchange of their old houses, lands and traditional life style.

Many peasants refused to leave their homes. The local governments, in return, played all kinds of dirty tricks on them. Mr. Chou Lin, for example, experienced man-made black-outs, water supply cut off, and noisy fireworks outside of his window during night, because he rejected the government’s notice to move. Mrs. Jin, a 60 year-old lady from Nantong, was beaten up by the gangsters hired by a government-supported developer, and they broke her ribs.

For those who moved the “concentrated residence,” they were disappointed. Mrs. Zhao Meilan, a homeowner of a 200-square-meter house and a 0.4 acre land, was reallocated to a transitional apartment less than half the size of her old house. She was given a 25$ monthly stipend, which covered less than a fraction of her living expenses.

Here is more.

A Chinese blogger uploaded detailed descriptions and photos on some cases. Please see here.

March 25, 2008

美国2008大选观察(四):圆谎的尴尬

Filed under: Comments, comments on news, 中文 — Rui Guo @ 7:06 pm

希拉里不久前在演讲中描述自己在某国遇险经历,后被媒体指撒谎。电视台调出当时拍摄的录像,结果所谓遇险–根据希拉里的描述,自己和女儿不得不在枪林弹雨中逃脱–根本是子虚乌有。希拉里近来领先优势消失,这次又损失公信力,可谓是雪上加霜。

Clinton under fire

(more…)

March 11, 2008

China finds gaping hole in pension fund

Filed under: China, Chinese Corporations, In English, comments on news — Rui Guo @ 4:29 pm

[The National Social Security Fund will soon become a more important player in Chinese securities market if the SOE non-traded shares are re-allocated to NSSF. ]

China finds gaping hole in pension fund

(more…)

March 6, 2008

美国2008大选观察(三):不确定的奥巴马和希拉里之争

Filed under: comments on news, in Chinese, 中文 — Rui Guo @ 12:20 am

纽约书评最近发表的一篇文章分析了民主党在决定奥巴马还是希拉里的过程里可能存在的不确定因素。除了不久前评论过的超级代表(super delegates)问题之外,还有密歇根和佛罗里达两州是否计票的问题 。(之前的评论,请点击这里。)

民主党全国委员会(Democratic National Committee)曾经因为密歇根和佛罗里达违反其规则而取消了两州的代表选票,希拉里阵营先前支持这一决定,后来发现两州选票支持希拉里居多,自己的选票又已经大大落后于奥巴马,于是提出反对民主党全国委员会的决定,要求把选票记入自己名下。两州选票可能会产生120票的差异,显然可能影响将来是奥巴马还是希拉里出任民主党候选人(奥巴马的选票1520,希拉里1424)。民主党全国委员会主席Howard Dean正在处理这一棘手问题。

纽约书评的分析清楚明白,有兴趣可以去读。

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