We focus attention on Iraq, Israel, and the middle east. Are
there other parts of the world–and/or issues–we should be paying attention to?
On the positive side, India is a democracy, pluralistic, and open, and
is becoming an economic powerhouse while (with the new goverment)
attempting to address social equity and fairness, as well. We
might want to be paying attention.
Also on the positive side is the issue of health and health technology. For
those who can afford it, the advances are astounding. Statins are
a major revolution unto themselves–as is the food market’s
astoundingly rapid shift to embracing low carbs (alright–some of it is
kind of misleading, like Coke’s 1/2 carb offer–but the meme has
certainly been picked up. A lot more folks are aware of type 2
diabetes and its prevalence.)
On the negative side, China is top on my list. China undermines our
economic and technical leadership by taking over manufacturing
production for the world, by seizing the intellectual property involved
in that production, and by doing all of this in an authoritarian
society. And thus China is a model of successful authoritarianism to the developing
world, and a model of how one can con America while she sleeps.
And in terms of the global zeitgeist, we still need to address the influence of Saudi
Arabia. Saudi Arabia undermines our moral and political
leadership
by funding radical religious schools around the world, and by being a
beacon of religious extremism combined with authoritarian politics in
the Islamic world.
And in case you hadn’t noticed, South Africa is
becoming–by national industrial policy–the arms supplier and lead
military trainer to the rest of
Africa, and doing so while turning a blind eye to human rights abuses,
closed societies, and parasitic governments. Thabo Mbeki is
working toward his dream of being the George Washington of Africa–but
what sort of Africa will it be?
And finally, what of all the failed states–such as Sudan–on the edge
of the world? We need a comprehensive policy for addressing these
places from which so many of the world’s worst diseases–social and
biological–have their origins. Note, btw, that both Osama bin
Laden’s Queda, and Ebola, found their safest refuge and most fertile
breeding grounds in Sudan.
In August, 2001 (a month before the start of the “9/11 era”) at the
first “Brainstorm” conference we conducted a delphi study to determine
what long-range problems the assembled experts believed were under
appreciated. The results were (1) water shortages, (2) China, (3)
terrorism. One of the three corrected itself–sort of. Now
in July of 2004 it might be valuable to revisit this exercise.
