Here is the story, with pictures…

Oh yea, oh yea, oh yea–

1.  Let’s get clearly why this story is important:

It shows how amazingly stupid the plan for Iraq was.

Assumptions of the plan for Iraq:  The Bush planners sat in Washington, D.C. and assumed (or at least argued to the American people)
that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq that could be
used against those outside of Iraq.  And the Bush planners assumed
the people of Iraq would welcome us like the French welcomed the US-led
liberation forces in WWII.

Reality on the ground in Iraq:  It turns out most of the people were appreciative but not affectionate
toward the US liberators–and had absolutely no basis for long-term
loyalty to a program to make their country an oil-supply subsidiary of
the US. 

And though Iraq did not have WMDs, Iraq had plenty of conventional weapons
that could be used against occupiers..and plenty of young men willing to use these weapons to fight the US forces…

The missing explosives story brings this point home, coming after months of increasing success by the insurgents.

2.  Next, let’s step back and examine our mental framing of the problem: 

The situation in Iraq is framed all wrong, as if the insurency just kind of emerged after the occupation…

Isn’t it possible that the insurgency was planned from the beginning?  What if an “indefinite insurgency” was part of Saddam’s game plan from the beginning?

Wasn’t it really obvious that the US would “win” the initial battles?

Isn’t it plausible that Saddam’s forces were told not to fight
directly, but to melt away into the crowd–to fight an insugency once
the occupiers had moved in and made themselves local and vulnerable
targets?

3.  The lesson of history is clear:

Insurgents usually win.  And amazingly,
insurgents usually do best against the strongest conventional
powers–because the conventional powers over-estimate the potential of
their paradigm of warfighting–and underestimate the effectiveness of
insurgency and “asymetrical warfare.”

By the way, there is a strong parallel in technology and business: Clay
Christensen’s well-known work on disruptive technologies:  Clay
emphasizes that the player being disrupted usually has so much mental
and emotional investment in its paradigm of value that it is blind to
the new value being created.

4.  Why do insurgents usually win?  Because they set up a disruptive value competition, and they provide better value:

In Iraq we have two sources of “new value” that the US is competing
with: 

First, we are using “military occupation” which has a value
of controlling territory in a macro sense, against “insurgency” which
as a value in controlling territory in a micro sense.  And
experience shows that if insurgencies can be sustained long enough,
they eventually succeed at defeating the occupier–starting at least in
the American revolution in the late 1700’s where George Washington led
a long-term insurgency that eventually sapped the British and made
their future rule of their former territories untenable.

Ask youself this:  Do you think that long-term US-friendly rule of
Iraq is becoming more or less tenable the longer the insurgency
continues?

The second value competition in Iraq is about meaning and the
organization of civil life. This is a competition that on one side has
a US-promoted puppet government and a vision of eventual US-style
democracy, carried out day-to-day by US military forces and local
military-backed “councils.” 

On the other side are religious and social networks that defend and
feed people, provide moral support and hope to members of
congregations, and promote a persuasive way to understand the
historical situation that people are living through, a situation framed
as a fight for Iraqi self-control and for freedom Iraqi-style.

5. What do we do? Change our mental frame, so we can at least understand the challenge:

Hmmmm.  Which is likely to win?  Under the current US
strategy I would bet on asymetrical warfare and the religous and social
networks that are evolving within the current social ecology of
war-torn Iraq.

The US might be able to modify social evolution in Iraq to something
different. But this will happen only when the US leaders in Iraq wake
up to the current value competition, and understand what they are up
against. 

Here is the tale told, from the Christian Science Monitor today..

the president’s team is being forced to field wild hits–not from John Kerry’s team, but from REALITY. 
And the president’s team is bobling the ball..

Well, it’s time to do some predicting. 

Having come from behind to beat the Yankees, having stayed focused to
beat the Cardinals, the Red Sox have won leg one of the ultimate triple
crown.

Now John Kerry is in the horserace of his life, and also coming from
behind. There is a lot of jockeying at the rail, but John…pulls it
out!!!

And now the Patriots–the real Patriot act–or rather, the class Patriot act–bring home the Super Bowl trophy this winter…

2004 is a year to remember, grandchildren..

Read Darfur Sudan genocide humor..

With just a week left to win this election, there are things we all can do.

One of them is to contribute to telling Brooke’s story on television.

Her story is very compelling–it explains vividly why John Kerry and his
team will be better for Americans on security and international relations.

This ad “tests” terrifically with undecided voters–it communicates the
truth better than other ads–and is targeted directly at the national
security leadership question.

Moveon has raised just over a million dollars for this ad in the past few days,
and other online and off-line giving has raised almost a million
more–but we are up against massively funded right-wing television buys
in these last few days. Please give if you can!

If we each give something, we can fund this ad very rapidly–in a
single day, if we act now. On the web all can be done at the speed that
memes spread..

Please contribute here to tell Brooke’s story in the battleground states!

Please make Brooke’s story viral today.  Please consider dedicating your blog for just for one day to get the word out about this story
today.  Your efforts will really help, because each of you will be
picked up and distributed by others–and our network will grow, the
meme will spread, and we will contribute individually and as a
community!

U.S. Concludes Bin Laden Escaped at Tora Bora Fight

Failure to Send Troops in Pursuit Termed Major Error

>

Classic Naomi Klein piece on Iraq, in case you missed it. Now more relevant than ever with the missing explosives…
Thanks to William Gibson for the pointer..

Click here to read more..
——————————–

A small group of dedicated young people I know has been working
for months to develop ways to honestly help people understand why
America is safer if we have allies. We need an intelligent foreign
policy.

Win Back Respect is the name of this group, and it has created the most compelling message yet.

I am on their board, have been since the beginning, and I have
witnessed the work they have done. It is extraordinarily well done, as
you can see for yourself below.

Click here to see the message.  This message speaks to me, and I believe it will speak to you. Best, according to extensive testing, this message speaks to
independent and undecided voters.  

We are in the last week of the campaign.  This ad’s time is now.  Click here to contribute to showing Brooke’s story on TV this week.  Anything you can do will help!  Consider $10 if nothing else.  Every dime helps.

Many people of good will are working together on funding and showing
this ad, because those who have seen it agree that it brings a very
very helpful story to people.

Click here to see the ad for yourself: Brooke’s story.

Please make Brooke’s story viral–please send the link to your
friends, and/or send this post to your friends.  Best yet, make
your own post and help distribute the message. Today is Monday.  We can
massively fund this ad in one or two days if each of you sends
something along.

Let us enable massive media showings in swing states this weekend!

Please, contribute now.

Yes, your contribution will really really help.  As Joe Trippi has emphasized
many times–if people of the web choose to do something, they can do it
instantly.  If people of the web decide to give a million dollars
in a few minutes, it will be done. 

Look for yourself.  I think you will agree this message is relevant and compelling.

Click here to contribute now.  Thanks so very much!

Those who read me know that I almost never make this sort of appeal. This is one time it matters.

Here are several links to the story of the 342 tons of stolen high explosives.

The explosives are of the type used to make nuclear triggers as well as conventional weapons.

Here is an overview story on the stolen explosives, from Reuters.

Here is the story from the UN, who was first told of the stolen explosives and, after verifying the story, told the US-led Multination Force.

Here is a helpful timeline, just published in the Boston Globe,
that tells the sorry story.  The bottom-line: when the US invaded
Iraq, they did not secure these explosives even though they searched
the area and declared it secure.

Extra credit question: The explosives are reported as stolen through
“theft and looting.”  How many pickup trucks does it take to carry
342 tons of explosives?

This is the first post-modern campaign, in the sense that media buys
themselves are major issues and topics of discussion of the campaign..

Well, this
is ripping up to the top of popdex, and for good reason–here is the
story: conservative group to spend more than $14 million in the last
two weeks of the campaign to create warm fuzzies about Bush..

oh yea, and that will fix the deficit, Iraq, stem cell research and science policy…

I really do want a president who believes in science…