Illusions of control=dangerous
October 23rd, 2007
From a systems point of view, I am almost always interested in situations where executives or government officials lose control by seeking it. The classic now is the Iraq war, where Bush/Cheney thought they could spread democracy across the middle east by focusing on one small autocratic nation, Iraq. The plan was to “seed democracy.” On the other hand, they did not trust the local people. So they worked with the local leaders–some but not all–to create a hybrid of autocracy and democracy. The most autocratic thing of all was the insertion, by war and force, of the United States military into the country.
Of course they could not control the local situation. They think they “underestimated the opposition.” Actually, they deluded themselves about being able to control the situation–or any similar situation.
More important, the mix of autocracy and democracy (invasion and occupation and elections) was so transparently wrong that it turned off both democratic and autocratic leaderes in the nation. And it frightened both democratic and autocratic governments around the region.
Internally, this upset the delicate balance of forces that was keeping the country from melting down. In the region, it wrecked the balance that kept the middle east, if not peaceful and democratic, at least relatively stable.
Finally, by persisting with this plan, the US lost all legitimacy everywhere, and with it the ability to influence anything.
In my own experience this pattern is surprisingly common. Consider situations you are facing.
The answer, as far as I can tell, is that the US must admit its powerlessness to control, and must look beyond itself for answers. It must make allies–and more important take data, analysis and advice, from people and nations outside of the region, outside of its ideological spectrum, and outside of the United States.