Making predictions using credit card data

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The biggest surprise to me in this article in Sunday’s Times, about how lenders use meticulous information about purchasing patterns to forecast default, is that the article treats this as a surprise.  Data on what we do is valuable to firms, and we should all expect that much of that data is being used for individual-level forecasting.

But I was also interested that I could find only this one source online (unrelated to the Times article) that discusses what Martin did at Canadian Tire, and it and the Times article are comparably vague.  I’d be curious for other sources and technical details.

These guys…

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should go to jail and never come out.  With juveniles.

Blogs and Awareness

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Simply, straightforwardly, I appreciate and support BlogCatalog’s quarterly efforts to unify bloggers behind a meaningful social cause.  Today, November 10, with them I think of the plight of refugees.

Disbelief

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I work with big, complicated databases all day, and I find it incomprehensible that any so critical as the voter registration databases could be managed so incompetently, in a way that encompasses so much belief in unreliable records and so much disbelief of human beings.

Massive federal allocations to the states, conditioned on massive upgrades and improvemets in voter registration technology and election-day voting technology, seem like no-brainers, even if more states adopt Oregon’s brilliant– and brilliantly successful– strategy of conducting all elections by mail.

Gulp

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As of today, the Intrade.com contract that pays off if Hillary Clinton wins the 2008 presidential election continues to trade at 2.6.  If we believe the prediction markets are thick enough for this price to be interpreted as a probability– ie, a 2.6% chance that Hillary will win– then we have to confront the question of “HOW??”  Since I can’t imagine Obama blundering so much that he would withdraw, I suspect that the markets think 2.6% is a lower bound on the probability that Obama will be assassinated before election day.  That’s pretty terrifying; I hope Hillary’s crewe is persistently representing their faith here, or that for some other reason I’m sorely, dramatically wrong.

Crisis links

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  • Original draft proposal
  • Draft bill sent to the House of Representatives yesterday (M 9/29/2008)
  • Final bill?
  • Like usual, the BBC has great overview material, in addition to their up-to-the-minute news coverage.
  • Series of the crucial statistics, ie, interest rate spreads and volumes in the short-term commercial credit markets?

Dragon fruit…

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hailed the new year earlier tonight.  In dried form, from Trader Joe’s, it was a not-unappealing cross between raspberries and potato chips.

Oprah defeats Hillary!

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Now according to prescient Easterbrook and White she’s just one game from the crown.

Fiction note: Philip Roth gets us right?

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“You fight your superficiality, your shallowness, so as to try to come at people without unreal expectations, without an overload of bias or hope or arrogance, as untanklike as you can be, sans cannon and machine guns and steel plating half a foot thick; you come at them unmenacingly on your own ten toes instead of tearing up the turf with your caterpillar treads, take them on with an open mind, as equals, man to man, as we used to say, and yet you never fail to get them wrong. You might as well have the brain of a tank. You get them wrong before you meet them, while you’re anticipating meeting them; you get them wrong while you’re with them; and then you go home to tell somebody else about the meeting and you get them all wrong again….. The fact remains that getting people right is not what living is all about anyway. It’s getting them wrong that is living, getting them wrong and wrong and wrong and then, on careful reconsideration, getting them wrong again. That’s how we know we’re alive: we’re wrong. Maybe the best thing would be to forget being right or wrong about people and just go along for the ride. But if you can do that–well, lucky you.

Early in American Pastoral, Philip Roth’s stand-in Nathan Zuckerman reflects thus in the midst of recounting his dinner encounter with The Swede. I think Roth/Zuckerman are right that it’s common to undertake this kind of presumption about people, and common to feel all too alive as a result. No doubt people are free to presume like this….

But what’s most interesting to me are the last two sentences, the idea that (i) people might be better off not to presume like this, and (ii) we might have a choice about it (not to mention (iii) that getting people badly wrong might do them injustice). It would be no surprise to me if Roth himself can’t help his long flights of speculation, if upon seeing someone he immediately begins constructing a narrative about him or her, full of family, inner life, and childhood sources of persistent angst. Roth’s objective in doing so is presumably to entertain, either to entertain a present or future audience, or just to entertain himself. If I were to launch into such a flight of speculation about, say, a professional acquaintance, I could be detrimentally distracted from the substantive content of our interactions. It would be better for me to concentrate on the equilibrium we’re discussing than to imagine whether his parents made his favorite baked ziti often enough when he was a kid.

… So to react to Roth’s last sentence above, I guess I think many of us are “lucky”– but lucky in a deliberate way, lucky to be able to concentrate on what matters to us about other people, lucky to be able to concentrate on the substance and character they choose to put forth. And if “unlucky,” we have a choice about how to speculate, too. I most often choose to speculate sympathetically– and if wrong, sure, plenty content to be alive.

Captive audiences

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For three reasons I was struck by the ads preceding a showing of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull at the George St Odeon in Oxford exactly one week ago. First, they began at exactly the time the show was listed to begin. I’m used to theaters that pitch to and entertain early arrivals, at least with a bit of movie trivia.

Second, the ads were abysmal. A week later I still feel the twisting in my stomach that I mostly had associated with Full House reruns. Most of the ads were bookended by an acknowledgment to some agency that had presumably bid for the right to the screen time and compiled the ads to show. If I were Odeon, I wouldn’t want to immiserate my consumers like that– I would want to keep control of the content.

Third, the ads went on for a full half hour despite (here’s the kicker) the fact that all tickets were for reserved seats. US theaters typically induce moviegoers to watch pre-movie ads by dangling the carrot of a better seat for the main feature. If you dare to try to arrive late and skip the ads, you may find yourself craning your neck from the front row. But next time I’ll know to buy my reserved seat ahead of time and confidently show up half an hour late.

All of this does provoke a question. I made the mistake of showing up on time because I don’t go to the movies all that often (though slightly more often than Professor Jones appears!). But how can this advertising structure persist?

  • If typical moviegoers like the ads more than me, one would expect the ads to start before the film’s scheduled start time.
  • Perhaps the ads are intended to be so bad as to cause people to wait in the lobby, where temptations of course abound. But then I don’t see why people with reserved seats would arrive on time.
  • Or, more hopefully, perhaps the awful ads make the movies themselves seem better. Then with small costs for running the projector, the ads might begin only at the scheduled time, and people might come on time to watch them.

The third bullet is the only explanation that sticks for me so far– and it requires that British moviegoers prefer Indiana Jones preceded by half an hour of drivel to Indiana Jones alone.  Plausible?  Not impossible…

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