Do Election Night Media Predictions Influence the Election?
As I listened to the radio this morning while I tried to drag myself out of bed, the radio announcer said John Kerry is expected to win today’s primary in Massachusetts. Hearing this prediction before polls may have even been open reminded me of a research article in the latest update to Research Matters, one of the projects I work on. The article explores whether media predictions of election outcomes effect voters and voting turnout, especially when results are being announced while polls are still open. The article investigates these ideas relative to two presidential elections, but the theory applies to local elections, too. My community already saw something similar to this in a fall election. Many people were so certain the incumbent mayor was going to win that some people, including the mayor’s supporters, did not vote. The mayor lost in a close election.
Massachusetts is probably a bad example for this application because John Kerry happens to be a state senator, people tend to vote for native politicians, and many people like him as a senator and think he would do well as president. People have been predicting for a while that he will win Massachusetts’ primary. Will the predictions discourage voters who may not vote for Kerry? Will Kerry supporters not turn out because they expect him to win? Will supporters for the remaining candidates rally to attempt to have a win in Massachusetts?
Addendum: Candidates dropping out of the race probably influence elections more than journalists reporting the results before the election is finished. Talk about an election through the process of elimination …
March 3rd, 2004 at 9:43 am
At my polling station there was a television on turned to the local news with the anchors predicting that Kerry would win. It probably did not matter much in this particular primary election, but still it caused me a bit of concern…