Middle East Strategy at Harvard

From Daniel Byman

U.S. and world attention is focused understandably on the Iranian nuclear program. The list of reasons to worry about an Iranian bomb is exceptionally long and, for the most part, legitimate.

One area where I disagree, however, is on the question of whether it is likely that Iran would transfer a nuclear weapon to a terrorist group such as Hezbollah. As I argue in a recent article for Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, I believe that this is unlikely. On the demand side, Iran has exercised considerable care with what it has not transferred to Hezbollah. For example, the Lebanese group has not received chemical weapons despite their being part of Iran’s arsenal for over two decades. In addition, Iran remains concerned about escalation and appears to recognize that unconventional weapons transfers to terrorists in general, to say nothing of passing on a nuclear weapon, is a true red line. Finally, and perhaps even more important, Hezbollah itself has evinced little interest in a nuclear weapon. The group has achieved remarkable political and military successes with its current weaponry and tactics, and it is not clear how a nuclear weapon would help it advance its agenda.

The bigger danger is Pakistan, including (or perhaps even more so) under a civilian government. Pakistan is vulnerable to both a deliberate transfer of a nuclear weapon from a lower-level military official to jihadist organizations, including domestic ones, as well as theft and corruption. In addition, the Pakistani government’s possible (I would say probable) complicity with the A.Q. Khan network suggests that Islamabad is not properly cautious on the nuclear side.

Finally, Al Qaeda and its affiliates have regularly demonstrated their strong interest in a nuclear weapon. They are willing to cajole, bribe, or steal in their quest, and they have a large and growing network within Pakistan. Al-Qaeda’s aims are far more ambitious and bloody than those of Hezbollah, and a nuclear weapon would serve its visions of violence and vengeance.