Future Cases of Cancer Could Jump 45 Percent by 2030
The number of cancer cases expected to be diagnosed in 2030 will be 45 percent higher than present numbers, a new study at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center suggests. Specifically, an estimated 2.3 million Americans are projected to be diagnosed with cancer in 2030, as opposed to 1.6 million Americans in 2010.
The dramatic increase in future cancer cases can be attributed to demographic changes. Certainly, a larger total population of United States citizens is partly to blame for the increased instance of cancer. However, demographic changes in age and minorities will serve to exacerbate the number of cancer cases.
By analyzing demographic trends, the study concludes that the number of cancer diagnoses in adults over the age of 65 will increase by 67 percent. An influx of minorities will also see a doubling of cancer cases among non-white adults – jumping from 330,000 to 660,000. It total, 70 percent of all cancer cases in 2030 will be attributed to the elderly and 28 percent will be attributed to minorities.
While cancer rates (as a percentage of the total population) are expected to stay relatively constant, the report does raise serious concerns in terms of treatment. This surge in cancer cases could put a tremendous strain on the health care infrastructure.
According to studies performed by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 40 percent of all U.S.-based oncologists are over the age of 55. This means that a good number of cancer specialists will be retiring in the next decade. Couple this with the reduced rate of new oncologists entering the field, and a shortage of approximately 3,800 cancer doctors is expected by 2030.
Resources:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/healthNewsMolt/idUKTRE53S7PL20090429?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
http://jco.ascopubs.org/cgi/content/abstract/JCO.2008.20.8983v1
http://www.kaisernetwork.org/daily_reports/rep_index.cfm?DR_ID=58283
