I was mildly surprised to see Arnold win by such a wide margin, with exit polls the night of the election estimating that he got 18% to 20% of the Democratic vote, but not so surprised to see him win. I wrote up a little bit about it in what might have been my first overtly political piece at http://www.pobox.com/~dnm/tdw/2003_10_01_entry.html#106560877506730902

Predictions of what large numbers of people will do often fail, especially when you assume some sort of reasoning. I know a Harvard economics professor who got out of the stock market in 1995 because stocks were overvalued. Assuming investors to be smart, this was a wise idea. However, given how the bubble continued to expand, it would have been better to stay in 4 or 5 more years. Better luck with your next prediction!

I think the newest law of American politics is that celebrity trumps all. So, when is Madonna running for President?

I guess the voters of California would rather be groped by a Republican than screwed by a Democrat.

That blog entry would have been more pathetic if it was posted on the eighth

Well Conrad, I like your idea of simuating the probability of how a candidate will do in office! I’m sure it’s just a matter of time before the networks have such a program designed.

I try to understand why the voters of CA could vote for such a crude, aggressive man, but it is beyond me. He never really stated very much what he intended to do in office. I don’t even think he promised not to raise taxes. Is it only his celebrity? Are the people as dumb as Philip as previously stated? Why are all these ignorant, unsavory, macho guys being voted into office?

Better get the simulation program up and going shortly, as I expect Mike Tyson to throw his hat in the ring next!

Oh, man. I so wish I had a witty comment for this, but the Arnold victory just speaks for itself.

Would you like to recount your prediction?

<Nelson>Haa.. Ha!</Nelson>

Arnie is now governer of California – it is really a shame that this kind of scenario can’t be simulated or something, instead of actually having to do it for real to see how it turns out.