September 11, 2011 – ProjectVRM

Two days ago, eMarketer Digital Intelligence ran a post titled Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad. Here are the first few paragraphs:

Older consumers are more likely to click on a Facebook ad, while younger consumers, who are more comfortable with interacting with brands on Facebook, are more likely to click “like.” This information can help marketers target specific audiences with their Facebook ads, a tactic that can be leveraged by using Facebook’s self-serve ad platform.

Over the 10 months leading up to August 2011, Facebook agencySocialCode analyzed Facebook ads for 50 clients and focused on those that included an image, text and a “like” button. The study analyzed how many consumers clicked on the ads, and from there, how many went on to “like” the company’s page.

Women are more likely to click on an ad on Facebook, though both men and women are about equally likely to then click “like” once they’ve done so, the study found. The average clickthrough rate for women of all ages was 0.029%, compared to 0.026% for men of all ages. The “like” rate among those who clicked an ad was 39% for women and 38% for men.

Older consumers are more likely to click on a Facebook ad, as clickthrough rates increased from 0.026% for the 18-to-29 age range, up to 0.033% for the over-50 group.

However, consumers under the age of 50 were more likely to then “like” a brand, with 18- to 29-year-olds and 40- to 49-year-olds doing so 40% of the time. Those ages 30 to 39 had a 38% “like” rate, while only 36% of those over 50 hit the “like” button.

This data supports the fact that younger consumers, having been on Facebook longer, are more familiar with showing support for a brand through a “like” and do so more often. Meanwhile, older consumers click through on an ad to learn more and investigate a brand.

Note the use of “more likely,” several times in those paragraphs. The difference is between fine degrees of “very, very, very, very few.” That’s because highest click-through rate for any demographic is about one third of one percent. Most click-through rates are about one quarter of one percent. That up to 40% of those clicking will also click “like” is interesting only to marketers who ignore the 99.76% to 99.66% who don’t click through at all, and who might regard the ads as noise or worse. Since Facebook allows users to express only one sentiment, it’s impossible to tell what other feelings an ad elicits, if any at all.

Here’s what I tweeted about the piece yesterday…

dsearls Which matters more in this data: bit.ly/putQMr — that only 0.025% click on an ad, or that X% of clickers “like” the ad? #VRM 11 hours ago

… and here’s Bitly’s list of all tweets with links to the piece, which they call —

Conversations

FoxyLoxy Total surveillance by some of the finest minds on the planet = 0.026% CTR. Pathetic result from a broken model. http://t.co/Yt8UhIi @dsearls about 1 hour ago

BSitko Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://j.mp/o6dzuF about 2 hours ago

Kate_DonahueRT @Britopian: Good info here! Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad from eMarketer http://t.co/PD0G5d1about 5 hours ago

sbwhite1RT @Britopian: Good info here! Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad from eMarketer http://t.co/PD0G5d1about 6 hours ago

socialmediafltrRT @Britopian Good info here! Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad from eMarketer http://t.co/39vcPW5about 7 hours ago

BritopianGood info here! Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad from eMarketer http://t.co/PD0G5d1about 7 hours ago

jemiwebRT @dsearls: Which matters more in this data: http://t.co/szArq3c — that only 0.025% click on an ad, or that X% of clickers “like” the ad? #VRMabout 7 hours ago

TedCRT @dsearls: Which matters more in this data: http://t.co/szArq3c — that only 0.025% click on an ad, or that X% of clickers “like” the ad? #VRMabout 9 hours ago

dsearlsWhich matters more in this data: http://t.co/szArq3c — that only 0.025% click on an ad, or that X% of clickers “like” the ad? #VRMabout 9 hours ago

JessicalowensOlder consumers will click on an ad, while younger ones go for the “like” http://t.co/lojMwGUabout 15 hours ago

marccustersAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://ow.ly/6q67e – @eMarketer RT @ClemLelardouxabout 17 hours ago

SMCBrusselsAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ow.ly/6qDE7about 20 hours ago

SocialWendyLooking for Like Conversion Stats for your Facebook Marketing Plans- here you go http://t.co/6uvQ0nrabout 20 hours ago

JudithSotoAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://j.mp/o6dzuFabout 21 hours ago

JessicalowensAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/lojMwGUabout 21 hours ago

morantreAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/x27OSWS – isn’t that kinda obvious ?!about 21 hours ago

spl900Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/cwegPnp via @AddToAnyabout 21 hours ago

LocalAdExecAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/jppQvBcabout 21 hours ago

Vanessa_BrightOlder consumers are more likely to click on a Facebook ad, while younger consumers are more likely to click “like.” http://ow.ly/6qHJkabout 21 hours ago

philpostroAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ow.ly/6pSDp #ad #facebook #marketing #stat #philpostroabout 22 hours ago

Ben_KaplanFor “Like” ads, older users will click on the ad while younger consumers will go for the “like” http://t.co/lAEVaSR via @emarketerabout 22 hours ago

ChristinePilchGood insight for marketers: How Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/t5hmUjsabout 23 hours ago

harumotteいいね、とアドのクリックは、年齢や性別によって異なる。いいねはブランド支持を示し、アドはブランドを学んだり、調査するため。Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/dx0C83cabout 23 hours ago

qermsaAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/KcjlX72 via @AddToAny1 day ago

WSIThamesAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad r http://t.co/BE32nzM1 day ago

ntshas@covertony Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/og6HjTj via @AddToAny1 day ago

10thstepsAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/x9Z8UIv via @AddToAny1 day ago

hisomAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/25llLAd1 day ago

jantoniotormoAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/jWQanZz http://t.co/2V6RGCA1 day ago

alina_popescuAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ow.ly/6qyRn eMarketer.com1 day ago

meenricoAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – via @eMarketer http://t.co/kyfG6BR1 day ago

EatStrategyRT @eMarketer: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://t.co/LizJHCw1 day ago

TheFunKenRT @rachaelcpowell: Old consumers are more likely to click on a Facebook ad; younger consumers are more likely to ‘like’ directly from it http://t.co/iwaDRKR1 day ago

V12studioslikes vs ads… Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/WTF09Nt via @AddToAny1 day ago

arjunsethiRT @isocket: Did you know that women are more likely to click a Facebook ad? http://ow.ly/6qic91 day ago

isocketDid you know that women are more likely to click a Facebook ad? http://ow.ly/6qic91 day ago

KellyMcNicolAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/Ho71mFJ1 day ago

mrwebmarketingAge affects ‘Like’ rate http://t.co/lTCoJvK http://t.co/W7XoV9J 1 day ago

MattLBrennan RT @JamieCrager: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will “Like” an Ad http://t.co/Y1m6XN8 1 day ago

JamieCrager Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will “Like” an Ad http://t.co/Y1m6XN8 1 day ago

SocialNet_Fun RT @DonnaAntoniadis: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer – http://ow.ly/6pPwk 1 day ago

imagecomm Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad. http://t.co/ZVixZbw 1 day ago

i_Lyndon Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/r3wJk3b via @zite 1 day ago

WordsBySusan #SMstudy: Age & gender differences re Facebook “Likes” http://ow.ly/6qkn1 1 day ago

holly_berkleyOlder consumers will click on an ad, while younger ones go for the “like” – eMarketer http://t.co/0WXv3cS1 day ago

holly_berkleyAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/0WXv3cS via @AddToAny1 day ago

WoodyWittersAge & gender determine whether consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – via @eMarketer http://t.co/8ZF1oFa #socialmedia1 day ago

socialradarage/gender affect #socialmedia actions. older people click. younger ones “like,” via @eMarketer: http://t.co/IKqEa7m1 day ago

HopeRun_TechAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ow.ly/6pTiv1 day ago

adgrlSuAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/vYvSHQn via @AddToAny1 day ago

flipelevenAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/gHNXRq91 day ago

RMM_OnlineAge, gender affect Clickthrough and “Like” rate of Facebook display ads. http://t.co/k03QGC1 #socialmedia1 day ago

ADWMarketingOlder FB consumers tend to click on ads, but younger Facebookers go for “like”. Interesting stats. http://t.co/N7Y6lcf http://t.co/92ohbTM1 day ago

lizzagAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/cLaI6RE1 day ago

ThereseMatthysAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/muLTxOb1 day ago

JBGonzalezAge 50 and older are more likely to click on a Facebook ad while those under 50 are more likely to “Like” a brand. More..http://ht.ly/6qdeg1 day ago

SEOSKYE1Do you know your demographic? Contact SeoSkye to find out. http://t.co/DK5EKLe1 day ago

Worldcom_PRAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/rJo5ftC1 day ago

TravelMediaGuruNEw Study: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ht.ly/6pSY11 day ago

UXfeederDelicious: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer: http://t.co/Y5dHn78 [marketing]1 day ago

csinkusRT @Foolproof_UX: ‘Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad according to emarketer http://t.co/gosJj3p #Facebook1 day ago

byeagercarterWomen more likely to click on Facebook ad – http://t.co/JNmtbm51 day ago

allenmirelesRT @AdrenalineJoe: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad… http://t.co/443Blvo1 day ago

LisaOstrikoffNew Media Marketing Insight … RT @emarketer: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://t.co/3iaaohP1 day ago

BizBOXTVRT @emarketer: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://t.co/iKkqJQo1 day ago

yeuseungAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/RenDc2i via @AddToAny1 day ago

GenerationsGuruRT @JanisG: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/cYJYMzZ via @AddToAny1 day ago

MAInteractiveOlder consumers will click on an ad, while younger ones go for the “like” – @eMarketer http://t.co/hiZvUeY #socialmedia #MKTdigital1 day ago

JasonKaplerBrands need 2 evolve engagement beyond Likes >> RT @LAdvertising Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/0i03LsE1 day ago

wsipremierSome info for social media marketers on the influence of age and gender on customer behavior. http://ow.ly/6q4ce1 day ago

DigitalMNAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://j.mp/o6dzuF1 day ago

NetSpeakDesignThis study indicates that if you want “likes” for younger FB users, don’t try advertising for them! http://t.co/lHgM9yt1 day ago

YotpoOfficialOlder will click-thru, younger will engage. Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://t.co/hniOfTB via @eMarketer1 day ago

philaestateAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/35kzQZG1 day ago

ClemLelardouxAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ow.ly/6q67e #in1 day ago

CaptiCorrieRT @adrenalinejoe: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad… http://t.co/ly4MMCf1 day ago

jer979RT @robbirgfeld: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/psTubyU1 day ago

AdrenalineJoeAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad… http://t.co/443Blvo1 day ago

JanisGAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/cYJYMzZ via @AddToAny1 day ago

jconeAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/XSgbdZF via @AddToAny1 day ago

pcdnetworkRT @nutshellmail: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ow.ly/6pYgX via @eMarketer1 day ago

targetmarket1RT @DonnaAntoniadis: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer – http://ow.ly/6pPwk1 day ago

nutshellmailAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ow.ly/6pYgX via @eMarketer1 day ago

resultsjhowaldAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/0vMVqII via @eMarketer1 day ago

sagonphiorWant to know who is “liking” and who clicks on Facebook ads? http://t.co/2udUwbJ1 day ago

lipup_kattyAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://t.co/qel4x5j RT: @eMarketer1 day ago

jerilynbizznessThings to consider when placing an ad – Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/Pk1o4d2 via @AddToAny1 day ago

frankcdaleFacebook Ads get a .003% or less click-through rate – eMarketer http://t.co/5l5LuTp1 day ago

rocketfuelincOlder Consumers More likely to click on an ad, while Younger One’s go for the “Like” @emarketer http://t.co/qhsqgm2 #online #advertising1 day ago

Erika_Vanessa_VRT @eMarketer: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://t.co/LizJHCw1 day ago

crushdirectAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/QdmpCoB via @AddToAny1 day ago

BTeichenAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – eMarketer http://t.co/62hvr9y via @AddToAny1 day ago

DennisPangAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://t.co/2f2YRq4 #Facebook1 day ago

ironhorseinter Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad: Older consumers are more likely to click on a Facebook ad,… http://t.co/fV7C8k6 1 day ago

bendonaldson News flash: Younger generations use social media http://ow.ly/6q1QN 1 day ago

eCommerceFAQs Older consumers will click on an ad, while younger ones go for the “like” http://t.co/i3fuI0i 1 day ago

mentionmappAge, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad http://ow.ly/6q1PU via @eMarketer1 day ago

mottacaioRT @eMarketer: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://t.co/LizJHCw 1 day ago

targetmarket1RT @eMarketer: Age, Gender Affect Whether Consumers Will ‘Like’ an Ad – http://t.co/LizJHCw 1 day ago

GuyMansueto 18- to 29-year-olds both click ads and like brands 40% of the time @emarketer http://t.co/7HudEFs 1 day ago

RTs are not conversations. They are echos.

Here are more, from “Related Articles” that a service called Zemanta shows me, in one of my WordPress panels:

Women Click Facebook Ads More Than Men [Data] (hubspot.com)
Minimizing Your Facebook Ad CPC Bid Prices by Avoiding Bid Competition(socialtimes.com)
Women more likely than men to click on Facebook ads (zdnet.com)
Minimizing Your Facebook Ad CPC Bid Prices by Avoiding Bid Competition(insidefacebook.com)
How to better engage your audience with targeted advertising on Facebook(thenextweb.com)
STUDY: Women Click More Facebook Ads Than Men (allfacebook.com)
Day-Parted Facebook Ads Work on Males, Consumers Over 50 (clickz.com)
Acquisio Helps Agencies Accurately Calculate Facebook Ad ROI (prweb.com)
Older Facebook Users Click On Ads, Younger Ones Only ‘Like’ (paidcontent.org)
Facebook Advertising Advantages (ronmedlin.com)

Some of these are “promoted.” Note that Zemanta assumes that everything related will be in the same echo chamber.

Here is my favorite view of that echo chamber, as it now stands:

It’s from The SCIENCE-ification of Media, by Terrence Kawaja, CEO of the investment bank LUMA partners. He has many other similar (and equally fascinating) graphics at Slideshare.

The least colorful part of the graphic is the word AUDIENCE, over on the right. That’s you, me, and the other 99.xx% out there who don’t click on an ad, as well as the 00.xx% who do.

What we see here is how supply tries to drive demand — and fails most of the time.

The much bigger market opportunity is in demand driving supply. That’s what we’ve been working on with ProjectVRM, at Harvard’s Berkman Center, for (as of this month) the last five years.

In that time the list of VRM development projects has grown from none to dozens. They are in Santiago, Johannesburg, Vienna, New York, London, Boston, D.C., Dubuque, Santa Barbara, Salt Lake City, Montreal, San Francisco and elsewhere. In their own ways they all help Demand signal Supply, rather than the reverse. They serve the actual intentions of individual buyers, rather than the machinations of advertisers and their legion of assistants, all scheming to grab the attention of an “audience” — a delusional term that suggests a patient group, all facing a stage, ready to applaud a performance.

It’s early in the new game here. That game is Customer Intentions vs. Advertiser Guesswork. As I said in The Data Bubble, back when The Wall Street Journal launched their terrific What They Know series (about tracking users without consent),

Here’s what’s delusional about all this: There is no demand for tracking by individual customers. All the demand comes from advertisers — or from companies selling to advertisers. For now.

Here is the difference between an advertiser and an ordinary company just trying to sell stuff to customers: nothing. If a better way to sell stuff comes along — especially if customers like it better than this crap the Journal is reporting on — advertising is in trouble.

Here is the difference between an active customer who wants to buy stuff and a consumer targeted by secretive tracking bullshit: everything.

Two things are going to happen here. One is that we’ll stop putting up with it. The other is that we’ll find better ways for demand and supply to meet — ways that don’t involve tracking or the guesswork called advertising.

Improving a pain in the ass doesn’t make it a kiss. The frontier here is on the demand side, not the supply side.

Advertising may pay for lots of great stuff (such as search) that we take for granted, but advertising even at its best is guesswork. It flourishes in the absence of more efficient and direct demand-supply interactions.

The idea of making advertising perfectly personal has been a holy grail of the business since Day Alpha. Now that Day Omega is approaching, thanks to creepy shit like this, the advertsing business is going to crash up against a harsh fact: “consumers” are real people, and most real people are creeped out by this stuff.

Rough impersonal guesswork is tolerable. Totally personalized guesswork is not.

While the advertising mills keep talking to themselves, VRM development continues. As it starts to go mainstream, we’ll need a new organization, primarily for customers, rather than just for developers. We’re working on that, and expect to have it going in the next six months. So stay tuned. Meanwhile, join me in thanking the Berkman Center for giving us the runway we needed to get VRM development off the ground.

Day: September 11, 2011

A visit to the advertising echo chamber

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